- Bullish: A 2-million-tonne drop in palm oil exports from key suppliers is expected to tighten global vegetable oil supply and support higher prices through September.
- Bullish for Sunflower Oil: Reduced palm oil availability should redirect demand toward Black Sea sunflower oil, improving its price competitiveness in Asia and Africa.
- Structural Support: Increased biodiesel production in Indonesia, Thailand, and Malaysia is absorbing more palm oil, reinforcing the tighter export balance.
Palm Oil Export Outlook April–September 2024
Oil World analysts project a notable contraction in palm oil export volumes during April–September 2024. Exports from the 8 main supplier countries are forecast at 22.12 million tonnes, around 2 million tonnes below the corresponding period in 2023. This tightening export balance is expected to provide broad support to global vegetable oil prices during the coming months.
| Period | Region / Country | Palm Oil Exports (mln t) | Reference Period | Reference Exports (mln t) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr–Sep 2024 (forecast) | Top 8 suppliers | 22.12 | Apr–Sep 2023 | 24.12 |
| Apr–Sep 2024 (forecast) | Indonesia | 12.36 | Apr–Sep (prior year) | 14.12 |
| Apr–Sep 2024 (forecast) | Malaysia | 8.25 | Apr–Sep (prior year) | 7.89 |
| Jan–Mar 2024 | Top 8 suppliers | 11.80 | Jan–Mar (prior year) | 9.62 |
| Jan–Mar 2024 | Indonesia | 6.82 | Jan–Mar (prior year) | 6.10 |
| Jan–Mar 2024 | Malaysia | 4.08 | Jan–Mar (prior year) | 3.18 |
The anticipated export decline is driven by a combination of slightly lower palm oil production in Indonesia and Malaysia and a substantial increase in biodiesel output across Indonesia, Thailand, and Malaysia. The ramp-up in biofuel mandates is diverting more palm oil away from export channels into domestic energy use.
Malaysia retains some flexibility to raise shipments by drawing down existing inventories, but this is unlikely to fully offset reduced availability from Indonesia, the world’s largest palm oil exporter. As a result, overall exportable supply from the top producers is expected to remain constrained through September.
Implications for Global Vegetable Oils
With palm oil accounting for roughly 35% of global vegetable oil supply, a 2-million-tonne shortfall over April–September is significant. Importers that typically rely on palm oil are expected to diversify procurement, supporting prices across the broader vegetable oil complex, including soybean, rapeseed, and particularly sunflower oil.
Black Sea sunflower oil stands to benefit as a key substitute, especially in price-sensitive regions such as Asia and Africa. Ukrainian and Russian exporters may gain from improved price competitiveness and incremental demand as buyers seek to cover refining needs amid tighter palm oil availability.
This substitution effect is likely to underpin sunflower oil premiums over the coming months, reinforcing a generally bullish tone for Black Sea-origin vegetable oils as long as palm oil exports remain constrained.
Source: Market Data
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