- Exports undershoot: March rapeseed and canola exports from seven key suppliers totaled 1.75 million tonnes, slipping below expectations and prior-year volumes.
- Black Sea weakness: Ukraine’s 2025/26 rapeseed exports plunged 42% year-on-year to 1.71 million tonnes, reducing Black Sea presence in global trade flows.
- High stocks: Canadian and Australian inventories remain elevated at 10 million tonnes and 3.7 million tonnes respectively, exerting ongoing pressure on prices.
- Soft demand: Chinese imports have fallen sharply year-on-year, removing a key outlet for global supplies and weighing on overall export performance.
- Bearish bias: Ample North American stocks and sluggish export pace point to continued downward price pressure, limiting premiums for Black Sea origins.
Market Update
According to Oil World, March rapeseed and canola exports from seven key supplying countries reached 1.75 million tonnes, underperforming expectations and declining from 1.78 million tonnes in March 2025. Canada increased shipments to 1.01 million tonnes of canola versus 838 thousand tonnes a year earlier, while Australian exports dropped sharply to 559 thousand tonnes from 904 thousand tonnes.
Stockpiles remain elevated in major origins. Canada held 10 million tonnes of canola at end-March, a six-year high and 2.15 million tonnes above the prior year. Australian inventories stood at 3.7 million tonnes, up 1.2 million tonnes year-on-year, underscoring the global supply overhang.
On the demand side, the EU imported 723 thousand tonnes of rapeseed and canola in March, down from 932 thousand tonnes a year earlier. China took 422 thousand tonnes, slightly up from 412 thousand tonnes, while Japan received 270 thousand tonnes, compared with 216 thousand tonnes previously.
Cumulative Exports and Key Destinations (2025/26)
| Exporter / Destination | 2025/26 Exports or Imports (million tonnes) |
2024/25 Comparable (million tonnes) |
Change (million tonnes) |
Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seven key suppliers (total exports) | 11.86 | 15.44 | -3.58 | -23.2% |
| Canada (exports) | 3.79 | 4.84 | -1.05 | -21.7% |
| Ukraine (exports) | 1.71 | 2.96 | -1.25 | -42.2% |
| EU (imports) | 5.75 | 6.84 | -1.09 | -15.9% |
| Japan (imports) | 1.63 | 1.61 | +0.02 | +1.2% |
| China (imports) | 1.24 | 4.09 | -2.85 | -69.7% |
Monthly Trade and Stocks Snapshot
| Item | March 2026 / Latest | March 2025 / Prior | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total rapeseed & canola exports (7 suppliers) | 1.75 million t | 1.78 million t | -0.03 million t |
| Canada exports (March) | 1.01 million t | 0.838 million t | +0.172 million t |
| Australia exports (March) | 0.559 million t | 0.904 million t | -0.345 million t |
| EU imports (March) | 0.723 million t | 0.932 million t | -0.209 million t |
| China imports (March) | 0.422 million t | 0.412 million t | +0.010 million t |
| Japan imports (March) | 0.270 million t | 0.216 million t | +0.054 million t |
| Canada canola stocks (end-March) | 10.0 million t | 7.85 million t | +2.15 million t |
| Australia rapeseed stocks (end-March) | 3.7 million t | 2.5 million t | +1.2 million t |
Market Analysis
Bearish for Black Sea rapeseeds. The 42% year-on-year drop in Ukrainian rapeseed exports highlights reduced competitiveness from the Black Sea region, even as North American supplies remain abundant. Weak Chinese demand, with imports for the current season down nearly 70% year-on-year, removes a key outlet for global stocks and intensifies competition in remaining markets.
The combination of elevated Canadian inventories at a six-year high, slower export pace from major origins, and softer EU import demand points to sustained downward pressure on rapeseed and canola values. This environment limits premium opportunities for Black Sea-origin material into both European and Asian destinations, keeping the overall price tone firmly bearish.
Source: Market Data
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