- Export slowdown: Ukraine’s total grain and legume exports are down 16.6% year-on-year to 30.997 million tons as of May 8, 2025.
- Corn-dominated mix: Corn accounts for 56.5% of shipments at 17.503 million tons, but all major crops show notable year-on-year declines.
- May pace deterioration: Early May exports dropped 57.7% to 798 thousand tons versus 1.885 million tons a year ago, signaling tighter nearby supply and weaker freight demand.
- Logistics impact: Reduced cargo availability from Black Sea origins may support FOB Black Sea values while limiting freight opportunities from Ukrainian ports.
Ukrainian Grain Export Performance
Ukraine’s grain export program in the 2025/26 marketing year is running notably behind last season. As of May 8, 2025, total grain and leguminous crop exports reached 30.997 million tons, compared with 37.153 million tons at the same stage of the 2024/25 marketing year, reflecting a 16.6% decline and a volume gap of 6.2 million tons.
The slowdown is especially visible in early May shipment activity. Exports so far in May 2025 total just 798 thousand tons versus 1.885 million tons in the comparable period last year, a steep 57.7% reduction that underscores tightening supply availability and weaker near-term export flows.
Export Structure by Commodity
Corn remains the backbone of Ukraine’s grain export balance, totaling 17.503 million tons and accounting for 56.5% of all grain shipments to date. However, this is still below last year’s 19.808 million tons. Wheat exports have reached 11.587 million tons, down from 14.497 million tons, while barley shipments stand at 1.467 million tons versus 2.291 million tons a year ago. Rye exports remain minimal at just 0.2 thousand tons.
Processed product exports have also softened. Total flour shipments declined marginally to 55 thousand tons from 62.3 thousand tons, with wheat flour representing 53.6 thousand tons of the total.
| Category | 2025/26 Exports (to May 8, 2025) |
2024/25 Exports (to May 8, 2024) |
Change (Volume) | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total grain & legumes | 30.997 mln t | 37.153 mln t | -6.156 mln t | -16.6% |
| Corn | 17.503 mln t | 19.808 mln t | -2.305 mln t | -11.6% |
| Wheat | 11.587 mln t | 14.497 mln t | -2.910 mln t | -20.1% |
| Barley | 1.467 mln t | 2.291 mln t | -0.824 mln t | -36.0% |
| Rye | 0.0002 mln t | n/a | ~0 | negligible |
| Flour (total) | 55.0 th t | 62.3 th t | -7.3 th t | -11.7% |
| Wheat flour | 53.6 th t | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| May exports (all grains) | 798 th t | 1.885 mln t | -1.087 mln t | -57.7% |
Market and Logistics Implications
The 6.2 million ton shortfall in Ukrainian grain exports indicates tighter supply availability and reduced freight demand from Black Sea ports. The particularly sharp deceleration in May shipments suggests that logistics coordinators and vessel operators should brace for lower cargo volumes in the near term, with potential implications for fleet utilization and freight rate dynamics.
From a pricing perspective, constrained exportable surplus and a corn-heavy shipment profile may lend support to FOB Black Sea values, even as overall trade volumes remain under pressure. The uniform decline across corn, wheat, barley, and flour shipments points to underlying supply constraints rather than a drop in demand, keeping attention firmly on production, stocks, and corridor reliability for the remainder of the marketing year.
Source: Market Data
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