- Bullish: US biofuel-driven crushing surge lifts global soybean oil production to a record 70.4 million tonnes in 2025/26.
- Bearish: Rising domestic use in producing countries cuts global soybean oil export availability by an estimated 800,000 tonnes.
- Neutral to Slightly Bearish Black Sea: Strong US supply curbs import demand, but tighter export flows may support alternative oils like Black Sea sunflower.
US Biofuels Boost Global Soybean Oil Production
Oil World has raised its global soybean oil production forecast for 2025/26 by 0.5 million tonnes to a record 70.4 million tonnes, up 1.9 million tonnes year-on-year. Between October 2025 and March 2026, production was already 1.2 million tonnes higher than in the same period a year earlier.
The United States remains the central engine of this expansion. Soybean crushing rates are at record highs as processors compensate for reduced vegetable oil output from other crops. The share of soybean oil in total US soybean processing has reached new records, supported by robust biofuel demand under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) program.
US Consumption, Stocks and Global Trade Shifts
US soybean oil consumption rose by 600,000 tonnes in October 2025–March 2026, with a further 800,000 tonne increase projected for April–September. This puts total US consumption growth at 1.4 million tonnes for the season, accounting for more than half of the 2.4 million tonne global consumption increase.
US soybean oil inventories climbed to 1.18 million tonnes at the start of March 2026, the highest level in more than a decade. The stock build reflects delayed RFS parameter announcements for 2026, which slowed offtake earlier in the season. However, anticipated strong consumption in the second half of the marketing year is expected to outpace production and draw down these inventories.
On the trade side, global soybean oil exports fell by 300,000 tonnes in October–March compared with the previous year, with an additional 500,000 tonne reduction expected in April–September. Producing countries are increasingly prioritizing domestic use, limiting exportable surpluses despite record output.
Implications for Black Sea Vegetable Oil Markets
The surge in US soybean crushing and biofuel demand reduces America’s need for imported vegetable oils, which can limit export opportunities for Black Sea sunflower oil into the US market. At the same time, tighter global soybean oil export availability may lend price support to alternative oils, including Black Sea sunflower oil, especially in price-sensitive destinations.
Record US inventories indicate ample near-term supply, which is neutral to slightly bearish for competing origins. However, if second-half US consumption accelerates as expected and begins to erode stocks, the resulting tightening in global soybean oil exports could improve the relative competitiveness and pricing power of Black Sea sunflower oil in international markets. Regional traders should closely track US policy signals, crush margins and export flows to gauge timing and scale of any shift.
| Indicator | 2024/25 | 2025/26 (Forecast) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Global soybean oil production | 68.5 mln t | 70.4 mln t | +1.9 mln t |
| US soybean oil consumption (seasonal increase) | – | +1.4 mln t | +1.4 mln t |
| Global soybean oil consumption (increase) | – | +2.4 mln t | +2.4 mln t |
| US soybean oil stocks (March 2026) | <1.18 mln t | 1.18 mln t | Highest in 10+ years |
| Global soybean oil exports, Oct–Mar | Last season | −0.3 mln t vs last season | −0.3 mln t |
| Global soybean oil exports, Apr–Sep (expected) | Last season | −0.5 mln t vs last season | −0.5 mln t |
Source: Market Data
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