Key Takeaways
- Initial monitoring shows Russia’s wheat quality is higher than last year.
- The share of milling wheat increased to 78%, up from 77% in 2023.
- Wheat with 12.5% protein rose to 28 million tonnes (MT).
- High-quality “strong wheat” output increased to 6.3 MT, up from 4.1 MT.
- Overall, improved wheat quality may impact global market dynamics.
Market Update
Russia’s Federal Center for Assessment of Safety and Quality of Agricultural Products has released its initial findings for the ongoing wheat harvest, showing a notable improvement in quality compared to the previous year. These results are based on samples from 70 MT of grain—representing 81% of wheat harvested so far across 67 regions.
The proportion of milling-grade wheat is now estimated at 78%, a slight increase from 77% last year. Notably, the volume of wheat with 12.5% protein content has grown to 28 MT, while “strong wheat”—valued for its high protein—reached 6.3 MT (7% of the sampled harvest), up from 4.1 MT (5%) last season. Officials indicated that these metrics may further improve post-harvest.
Summary Data
| Metric | 2023/24 Harvest | 2022/23 Harvest |
|---|---|---|
| Milling Wheat Share (%) | 78% | 77% |
| Wheat 12.5% Protein (MT) | 28 | n/a |
| Strong Wheat (MT) | 6.3 (7%) | 4.1 (5%) |
Analysis
Bearish. The increased volume and quality of Russian wheat, especially high-protein grades, adds bearish pressure for global wheat markets. Russia’s greater supply of high-specification wheat enhances its competitiveness in export tenders, particularly to North African and Middle Eastern markets. This development reinforces Russia’s role as a key price-setter, limiting premiums for protein-rich wheat worldwide.
Source: Market Data
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