- Russian soybean exports to China surged 118% year-on-year in March, reaching 0.12 million tons— the strongest monthly performance since December 2023.
- Export forecast for 2025/26 revised up by 67% to around 1 million tons, reflecting sustained external demand from China, Belarus, and Iran.
- Domestic ruble soybean prices in Russia’s Central Federal District rose 5% in March amid tighter supply and strong export pull.
- Far Eastern export quota still 45% unused, leaving room for further shipments before a potential slowdown as quota limits approach.
Russian Soybean Export Surge to China
Russian soybean exports to China climbed to 0.12 million tons in March 2025, up 64% from February and 118% versus March 2024, according to Russia’s federal center “Agroexport.” This marks the highest monthly volume since late 2023 and underscores China’s strengthening demand for Russian-origin soybeans.
In addition to China, robust buying interest from Belarus and the launch of initial large-scale shipments to Iran via the Caspian Basin (around 25,000 tons) has further tightened the Russian domestic balance. Processors are facing slight deficit conditions despite expectations of comfortable carryover stocks from the previous harvest.
Domestic Price and Supply Dynamics
Stronger export flows have pushed ruble-denominated soybean quotations in Russia’s Central Federal District about 5% higher over March, overturning earlier expectations of price weakness. The firmer price environment is supporting farmer sentiment heading into the 2025 planting campaign, as producers reassess marketing strategies in light of sustained external demand.
Export Forecast and Quota Utilization
Russia’s soybean export forecast for the 2025/26 marketing year has been revised up to approximately 1 million tons, a 67% increase compared with the previous season. This upgrade reflects Russia’s growing competitiveness in regional soybean trade flows, particularly for Asian buyers seeking diversification of origin.
In the Far Eastern regions, a 500,000-ton export quota remains in place at a reduced duty rate of 5% (minimum $25 per ton). As of now, Primorsky Krai and Amur Oblast have used only about 55% of this capacity, leaving scope for continued export activity. However, analysts expect a deceleration in shipments as the quota approaches full utilization later in the season.
| Indicator | Value | Change vs. Prior Period |
|---|---|---|
| Russian soybean exports to China (March 2025) | 0.12 million tons | +64% month-on-month / +118% year-on-year |
| 2025/26 MY soybean export forecast | ~1.0 million tons | +67% vs. previous season |
| Soybean prices, Central Federal District (ruble terms) | Index | +5% in March |
| Far Eastern soybean export quota | 500,000 tons | 55% utilized |
| Export duty (Far Eastern quota) | 5% (min $25/ton) | Preferential rate |
Market Implications and Logistics
The combination of Chinese demand, additional flows to Belarus, and emerging exports to Iran via the Caspian Basin has materially tightened Russia’s domestic soybean balance, shifting price risk to the upside. For Black Sea and regional logistics coordinators, the operationalization of the Caspian route to Iran is a notable structural development that could re-shape trade lanes and vessel allocation.
Going forward, traders should closely track the pace of Far Eastern quota utilization and any subsequent policy adjustments. A slowdown in quota-backed exports could redirect volumes toward domestic processors or alternative destinations, potentially stabilizing or further supporting internal price levels through the spring planting window.
Source: Market Data
Leave a Reply