- French exports rebound: FranceAgriMer raised 2025/26 soft wheat intra‑EU exports to 7.70 million tonnes, up 13% year‑on‑year.
- Extra‑EU strength: Extra‑EU soft wheat exports are projected at 7.1 million tonnes, more than double 2024/25 volumes.
- Stocks at decade high: French soft wheat ending stocks are forecast at 3.31 million tonnes, a 10‑year high despite a downward revision.
- Mixed grains outlook: Barley and corn ending stocks were also revised higher, reflecting ample grain availability.
- Competitive pressure: Recovery in French export capacity is neutral to slightly bearish for Black Sea wheat exporters due to stronger competition.
FranceAgriMer Wheat Export Revision for 2025/26
FranceAgriMer has increased its French soft wheat export projections for the 2025/26 marketing year. Intra‑EU shipments are now estimated at 7.70 million tonnes, up from 7.57 million tonnes and 13% higher than the previous season. Extra‑EU exports are forecast at 7.1 million tonnes, unchanged from the prior estimate but more than double 2024/25 volumes, signaling a strong recovery after last season’s poor domestic harvest.
Despite this export rebound, France continues to face intense competition on global markets, which is limiting additional upside in trade flows. Nevertheless, the revised outlook indicates that French wheat is regaining market share both within the EU and in traditional third‑country destinations.
French Grain Balance and Ending Stocks
FranceAgriMer’s updated balance sheet shows soft wheat ending stocks for 2025/26 at 3.31 million tonnes, down from 3.39 million tonnes previously. Even with this downward revision, carryover is projected to be around 33% higher than last season and at the highest level in a decade, underscoring comfortable supply.
Other major grains also show ample availability. Barley ending stocks were raised to 1.46 million tonnes from 1.38 million tonnes on the back of higher crop availability, while corn stocks edged up from 2.33 million tonnes to 2.36 million tonnes.
| Grain | Indicator | Previous Forecast (mln t) | Revised Forecast (mln t) | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Soft wheat | Intra‑EU exports 2025/26 | 7.57 | 7.70 | +13% vs 2024/25 season |
| Soft wheat | Extra‑EU exports 2025/26 | 7.10 | 7.10 | >100% above 2024/25 volumes |
| Soft wheat | Ending stocks 2025/26 | 3.39 | 3.31 | Highest in 10 years; ~33% above last season |
| Barley | Ending stocks 2025/26 | 1.38 | 1.46 | Higher crop availability |
| Corn | Ending stocks 2025/26 | 2.33 | 2.36 | Marginal upward revision |
Market Impact and Black Sea Competitiveness
The outlook is neutral to slightly bearish for Black Sea wheat exporters. France’s recovery in export capacity, especially the doubling of extra‑EU shipments, tightens competition in key import markets where Black Sea origins have been dominant. At the same time, the persistence of elevated French ending stocks highlights ongoing global price pressure and suggests that competition is being driven more by pricing and demand conditions than by supply constraints.
Black Sea suppliers may face increased headwinds in both EU markets and shared third‑country destinations as French wheat becomes more price‑competitive and available. However, given still‑intense global competition, France’s expanded export program is more a sign of normalization after a weak harvest than an aggressive expansion in global market share.
Source: Market Data
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