- Production Surge: Turkey’s 2026/27 wheat output is forecast to jump 20% year-on-year to 19.8 million tonnes on better rainfall and an eight-year high in planted area.
- Import Demand Eases: Higher domestic availability is expected to cut Turkey’s wheat imports by 10% to 6.5 million tonnes, softening demand in Black Sea export channels.
- Flour Exports Under Pressure: Turkish flour exports are seen down 3% to 2.2 million tonnes (wheat equivalent), limiting the country’s ability to absorb surplus wheat.
- Crop Mix Shift: Expanded wheat acreage is projected to reduce corn area by 10% in 2026, dragging corn output down 11% to 7 million tonnes.
- Bearish for Regional Prices: Stronger Turkish production and weaker import needs are broadly bearish for Black Sea wheat export values, especially if spring rains push output above 20 million tonnes.
Turkey Wheat & Corn Outlook 2026/27
The Foreign Agricultural Information Service of the USDA (FAS USDA) projects Turkey’s wheat production to rise 20% in 2026/27, reaching 19.8 million tonnes, the country’s second-highest crop on record. The forecast is underpinned by increased rainfall across key growing regions and a significant expansion in wheat planting area to 7.45 million hectares, an eight-year high.
Industry participants highlight upside risk to the official forecast. If spring rains during March–May are favorable, total wheat output could surpass 19.8 million tonnes and potentially challenge the previous record of 21 million tonnes. The improved yield outlook reinforces expectations of ample domestic supply into the 2026/27 marketing year.
Trade Flows: Wheat Imports and Flour Exports
With a larger domestic crop, Turkey’s wheat import requirements are expected to decline. FAS USDA forecasts wheat purchases falling 10% to 6.5 million tonnes in 2026/27. This reduction in demand is likely to ease competition for Black Sea-origin wheat in traditional Turkish import channels, with potential implications for regional trade patterns and pricing.
At the same time, Turkey’s flour export sector remains under pressure. Exports are projected to drop 3% to 2.2 million tonnes (wheat equivalent) over June 2025–January 2027, even though Turkey retains its position as the world’s largest flour exporter. Iraq remains the key outlet, followed by Syria and Somalia, but shipments to Iraq have been declining. Offsetting this, exports to Syria, Indonesia, and Ghana have shown growth, partially diversifying Turkey’s flour demand base.
Impact on Corn and Crop Mix
The shift in planted area toward wheat is expected to weigh on Turkey’s corn sector. Corn acreage is projected to fall 10% in 2026, driving an estimated 11% decline in corn production to around 7 million tonnes. This adjustment reflects relative profitability between crops and the policy and market incentives currently favoring wheat.
Market Implications and Price Signals
Bearish for Black Sea wheat exports: Turkey’s stronger domestic wheat balance sheet and lower import demand point to weaker pull on supplies from Black Sea exporters. While reduced import volumes should ease global demand pressure, the ongoing softness in flour exports caps Turkey’s ability to absorb surplus wheat through value-added channels. As a result, Turkish-origin wheat may remain competitively priced in regional markets, potentially adding to supply-side pressure.
Market participants should closely monitor spring rainfall in Turkish growing regions. A favorable weather pattern that lifts production above 20 million tonnes would add further downside risk to regional wheat prices and could re-shape export demand dynamics for key Black Sea suppliers.
| Indicator | 2025/26 (Est.) | 2026/27 (Forecast) | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wheat Production (million tonnes) | 16.5 | 19.8 | +20% |
| Wheat Area (million hectares) | ~6.9 | 7.45 | ↑ to 8-year high |
| Wheat Imports (million tonnes) | 7.2 | 6.5 | -10% |
| Flour Exports (wheat eq., million tonnes) | 2.27 | 2.2 | -3% |
| Corn Production (million tonnes) | 7.9 | 7.0 | -11% |
Source: Market Data
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