- Overall exports ease: Total Canadian grain, pulse, and oilseed exports slipped 2% year-on-year to 33.5 million tonnes as of March 29.
- Oilseeds drag volumes: Canola exports fell 23% to 5.3 million tonnes, while corn shipments plunged 73% to 0.4 million tonnes, weighing on aggregate flows.
- Cereals and pulses outperform: Wheat, barley, and pulses posted strong gains, with barley exports up 70% and lentil volumes rising 20%.
- Black Sea impact mixed: Weaker Canadian canola is modestly supportive for Black Sea oilseed exporters, while stronger Canadian wheat adds competition in key import markets.
- Freight effect limited: Trade route differences (Pacific/St. Lawrence vs. Black Sea) temper direct implications for Black Sea freight rates.
Canadian Grain Export Performance
According to the Canadian Grain Commission (CGC), Canada exported 33.5 million tonnes of grain, pulses, and oilseeds between August 1, 2025 and March 29, 2026, down 2% from the same period a year earlier. The headline decline masks a sharp divergence between weaker oilseed and corn flows and robust gains in wheat, barley, and pulses.
| Commodity | Export Volume (Mn tonnes) | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|
| Total grain, pulses & oilseeds | 33.5 | -2% |
| Canola | 5.3 | -23% |
| Corn | 0.4 | -73% |
| Soft wheat | 14.5 | +4% |
| Durum wheat | 3.8 | +4% |
| Barley | 2.3 | +70% |
| Peas | 1.8 | +24% |
| Lentils | 1.0 | +20% |
| Soybeans | 3.6 | 0% |
Market Update
The latest CGC data show a modest 2% year-on-year decline in Canada’s total grain and oilseed exports to 33.5 million tonnes as of March 29, 2026. The downturn is concentrated in oilseeds and feed grains, with canola exports falling 23% to 5.3 million tonnes and corn shipments collapsing 73% to just 0.4 million tonnes. These categories significantly reduced Canada’s exportable surplus into global oilseed and feed markets.
By contrast, wheat and barley flows remain robust. Canadian soft wheat exports rose 4% to 14.5 million tonnes, while durum wheat also gained 4% to 3.8 million tonnes, underscoring solid overseas demand. Barley registered the strongest percentage growth, with exports surging 70% year-on-year to 2.3 million tonnes, reflecting both improved availability and firm demand from key feed and malting destinations.
Pulses contributed positively to the export mix. Pea exports climbed 24% to 1.8 million tonnes and lentil shipments increased 20% to 1 million tonnes, reinforcing Canada’s role as a core supplier to South Asian and Middle Eastern buyers. Soybean exports were stable at 3.6 million tonnes, unchanged from the prior marketing year and providing a degree of balance within the broader oilseed complex.
Market Analysis & Black Sea Freight Implications
From a global balance perspective, the sharp reduction in Canadian canola and corn exports is modestly supportive for competing oilseed and feed grain origins. Lower Canadian canola availability may open incremental demand for Black Sea sunflower oil and meal, as crushers and refiners diversify origin risk and seek replacement volumes. This shift could underpin Black Sea oilseed crush margins and maintain export program support into key destinations in Europe, MENA, and Asia.
However, the resilience of Canadian wheat—evidenced by 4% growth in both soft and durum exports—adds competition for Black Sea wheat in several overlapping import markets. Additional Canadian volumes can cap upside for Black Sea wheat prices at the margin, particularly in quality-sensitive tenders where Canada competes on protein and milling specifications.
For freight, the implications remain limited. Canadian exports predominantly move via Pacific ports and the St. Lawrence system, while Black Sea exports rely on the Bosporus, Mediterranean, and Red Sea routes. As a result, the Canadian export mix shift has only an indirect effect on Black Sea freight, mainly through changes in global trade flows and relative origin competitiveness rather than direct route substitution.
Source: Market Data
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