- Kazakhstan targets a massive increase in sunflower oil exports to Iran, from 5,900 tons to potentially 500,000 tons annually.
- The expansion hinges on building new oil-loading terminals in the Caspian ports of Kuryk and Aktau.
- Iranian investment in Kazakhstan’s oilseed processing and logistics infrastructure is under discussion, indicating closer bilateral trade ties.
Market Update
Kazakhstani and Iranian agriculture ministers recently met to discuss dramatically scaling up bilateral sunflower oil trade. Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Agriculture reports that local processors can supply up to 500,000 tons of sunflower oil annually to Iran—a nearly hundredfold increase over the 5,900 tons delivered in 2024.
Regional Logistics Update
To handle the new export volumes, both countries plan to construct oil-loading terminals at the Caspian ports of Kuryk and Aktau. Expanded logistics capacity is essential for facilitating this growth. Additionally, the Iranian firm Kourosh Food Industry has expressed interest in developing oilseed processing and logistics facilities in Kazakhstan, deepening the strategic partnership. Iran’s agriculture ministry confirmed its readiness to intensify cooperation in this sector.
Analysis
This deal poses a notable long-term bearish risk for Black Sea sunflower oil markets. Successfully supplying 500,000 tons annually would create a significant, non-Black Sea supply line directly to Iran, ramping up competition for Russian and Ukrainian sunflower oil. This could pressure regional prices and require Black Sea exporters to diversify their markets. Enhanced processing capacity within Kazakhstan may also tighten domestic supply for raw sunseeds, further shifting market dynamics.
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