- Exports Surge: Russian wheat shipments jumped 110% year-on-year in March to 4.6 million tons, with total grain exports reaching nearly 5.3 million tons.
- Buyer Concentration: Egypt and Turkey dominated wheat purchases, while Iran emerged as a major new buyer for Russian corn.
- Season Lagging: Season-to-date wheat exports are still down 4.7%, keeping full-season volumes under pressure despite March’s rebound.
- Market Tone: Overall impact skews neutral to slightly bearish for prices as strong export availability limits upside risk for Black Sea wheat.
Russian Wheat Export Performance in March
Russian wheat exports surged to 4.6 million tons in March 2025, 2.1 times higher than in March 2024, underscoring the country’s continued competitiveness in global grain markets. Total grain exports reached nearly 5.3 million tons, up 2.4 times year-on-year, driven by stronger demand from key destination markets and improved shipment logistics.
Destination Breakdown: Wheat, Corn, and Barley Flows
Egypt remained the largest buyer of Russian wheat in March, increasing purchases 2.7 times to more than 1 million tons. Turkey followed with 503,700 tons, 3.3 times higher than a year earlier, while Sudan ranked third at 292,700 tons, up 46% year-on-year. Corn exports rose 14-fold to 379,500 tons, led by Iran with 253,000 tons, marking a new trade flow. Turkey bought 104,000 tons of corn and Afghanistan 12,000 tons. Barley shipments climbed sharply as well, with Turkey receiving 125,500 tons and Iran 65,600 tons.
Season-to-Date Exports and Outlook
Despite the strong March performance, Russian wheat exports for the first nine months of the 2025/26 season totaled 37.5 million tons, 4.7% lower than in the same period last season. According to Elena Tyurina of the Russian Grain Union, full-season wheat exports are projected at 45 million tons or higher. This implies a moderate finish to the marketing year, with sufficient export availability to temper upside price pressure on Black Sea wheat benchmarks.
Market Impact: Neutral to Bearish Bias
The March export surge signals robust demand and improved logistics, but the season-to-date shortfall keeps overall volumes slightly behind last year. The rapid expansion of corn and barley exports, especially into Iran and Afghanistan, highlights Russia’s growing footprint beyond wheat. For traders, the data suggest a neutral to mildly bearish outlook, as ample supply from the Black Sea could cap rallies unless subsequent months show a marked slowdown in shipments.
| Commodity / Period | Volume (tons) | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|
| Wheat exports – March 2025 | 4,600,000 | +110% (2.1x) |
| Total grain exports – March 2025 | 5,300,000 | +140% (2.4x) |
| Corn exports – March 2025 | 379,500 | +1,300% (14x) |
| Barley exports – March 2025 | 288,000 | vs. 3,800 tons |
| Wheat exports – Egypt (March) | >1,000,000 | +170% (2.7x) |
| Wheat exports – Turkey (March) | 503,700 | +230% (3.3x) |
| Wheat exports – Sudan (March) | 292,700 | +46% |
| Corn exports – Iran (March) | 253,000 | New flow |
| Corn exports – Turkey (March) | 104,000 | Expanded |
| Corn exports – Afghanistan (March) | 12,000 | Expanded |
| Barley exports – Turkey (March) | 125,500 | Higher YoY |
| Barley exports – Iran (March) | 65,600 | Higher YoY |
| Wheat exports – season-to-date (9 months) | 37,500,000 | -4.7% |
| Forecast wheat exports – full season | ≥45,000,000 | Modest finish expected |
Source: Market Data
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