- Export Surge: US soybean meal exports hit 380,000 tonnes in the week of March 13–19, up 52% year-on-year, with three-week volumes reaching 1.14 million tonnes.
- Stronger Crush: US soybean processing in March is projected at 6 million tonnes, a 7% increase versus 5.6 million tonnes last year, underpinning higher meal supply.
- Q1 Growth: First-quarter 2025 oilseed crush volumes are estimated about 9% above the same period in 2024, reinforcing US dominance in global protein meal markets.
- Price Pressure Risk: Expanded US meal availability is neutral to slightly bearish for Black Sea sunflower and rapeseed meal, potentially weighing on international prices and basis levels.
US Soybean Meal Export Momentum
US soybean meal exports have maintained strong momentum through mid-March, driven by elevated domestic crushing activity and robust international demand. According to Oil World, shipments during the week of March 13–19 reached 380,000 tonnes, a sharp increase from 250,000 tonnes in the same week of 2024. Over the latest three-week period, cumulative exports totaled 1.14 million tonnes, up by 300,000 tonnes year-on-year.
US Soybean Crushing and Meal Supply
Industry projections suggest US soybean processing volumes will reach 6 million tonnes in March, compared with 5.6 million tonnes in March 2024. This 7% monthly increase in crush activity boosts soybean meal output and supports a more aggressive US export program. For the first quarter of 2025, oilseed crushing volumes are estimated to be around 9% higher than in the corresponding period of 2024, reinforcing the United States’ role as a key supplier of protein meals to global markets.
| Metric | Period | 2024 | 2025 / Latest | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weekly soybean meal exports | Mar 13–19 | 250,000 tonnes | 380,000 tonnes | +52% |
| 3-week soybean meal exports (cumulative) | To Mar 19 | 840,000 tonnes | 1,140,000 tonnes | +300,000 tonnes |
| Monthly soybean crush | March | 5.6 million tonnes | 6.0 million tonnes (proj.) | +7% |
| Q1 oilseed crush | Q1 | Base index = 100 | ~109 (est.) | ~+9% |
Implications for Black Sea Protein Meal Markets
The expansion of US crushing and export capacity is neutral to slightly bearish for Black Sea sunflower meal and rapeseed meal exporters. Higher US soybean meal availability increases competition in overlapping destination markets, particularly in the Mediterranean and Middle East. As US suppliers leverage scale and logistics advantages, Black Sea traders may face pressure on basis levels and margins, especially if buyers use cheaper US offers as a benchmark for renegotiating regional prices.
Market participants across the Black Sea region should closely track US crush utilization rates, export pace, and freight spreads into key demand centers. Sustained high US output could weigh on international protein meal prices, prompting portfolio adjustments between soybean meal, sunflower meal, and rapeseed meal in key importing countries.
Source: Market Data
Leave a Reply