- March rebound: Ukraine shipped 3.194 million tons of grain in March 2025, up 5.3% year-on-year.
- Seasonal shortfall: Total 2025/26 exports of 25.619 million tons are lagging last year by 20.5% (‑6.6 million tons).
- Corn dominance: Corn made up 76% of March grain exports at 2.437 million tons, underscoring strong corn availability.
- Wheat softness: Lower wheat volumes versus last year point to weaker demand for larger Panamax wheat freight routes.
- Freight outlook: Overall export weakness suggests neutral‑to‑bearish freight demand from Ukrainian origins into Q2 2025.
Ukrainian Grain Export Performance
Ukraine’s grain export flows showed a modest month-on-month recovery in March 2025 but remain substantially below last season on a cumulative basis. According to State Customs Service data published by the Ministry of Economy, total exports in the 2025/26 marketing year reached 25.619 million tons as of March 27, compared with 32.214 million tons at the same point a year earlier, a decline of 20.5%.
March shipments totaled 3.194 million tons, an increase of 162,000 tons versus March 2024’s 3.032 million tons. The monthly uptick highlights improving operational continuity through Black Sea and alternative export corridors, even as full-season volumes remain constrained.
Grain Export Breakdown
| Commodity | Season Exports 2025/26 (to Mar 27) |
Season Exports 2024/25 (to Mar 27) |
Y/Y Change | March 2025 Exports |
March 2024 Exports |
Y/Y Change (March) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total grain | 25.619 million t | 32.214 million t | -20.5% | 3.194 million t | 3.032 million t | +5.3% |
| Corn | 13.985 million t | n/a | n/a | 2.437 million t | n/a | n/a |
| Wheat | 9.851 million t | n/a | n/a | 704,000 t | n/a | n/a |
| Barley | 1.404 million t | n/a | n/a | 49,000 t | n/a | n/a |
| Rye | 200 t | n/a | n/a | 0 t | n/a | n/a |
| Flour (total) | 49,300 t | n/a | n/a | 6,200 t | n/a | n/a |
| of which wheat flour | n/a | n/a | n/a | 6,100 t | n/a | n/a |
Corn remains the key volume driver, reaching 13.985 million tons so far this season and accounting for 2.437 million tons, or roughly 76%, of March grain exports. Wheat exports totaled 9.851 million tons season-to-date, with 704,000 tons shipped in March. Barley volumes remained modest at 1.404 million tons for the season and 49,000 tons in March, while rye exports were negligible at 200 tons with no activity reported in March.
Flour exports added 49,300 tons to overall grain product flows this season. March flour shipments stood at 6,200 tons, almost entirely wheat flour (6,100 tons), indicating stable value-added product demand despite weaker bulk grain volumes.
Market and Freight Implications
The export profile remains neutral to bearish for Black Sea freight and broader grain market sentiment. The 6.6 million ton year-on-year shortfall underscores ongoing constraints on Ukrainian export capacity and corridor reliability. While corn-heavy flows support consistent demand for handy and Supramax tonnage, the relative softness in wheat exports may limit utilization of larger Panamax vessels typically employed on main wheat routes.
Logistics coordinators and freight desks should plan for continued year-on-year weakness in total Ukrainian grain and product liftings into Q2 2025, even if month-on-month gains appear intermittently as infrastructure, insurance, and routing conditions improve.
Source: Market Data
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