Global Soybean Processing Surges to Record 370.6 Million Tonnes in 2025/26
- Record processing: Global soybean crushing projected at a record 370.6 million tonnes in 2025/26, up 12.5 million tonnes year-on-year and 55 million tonnes over three years.
- Black Sea expansion: Russia and Ukraine ramp up soybean crushing, strengthening regional meal and oil supply and slightly supporting local basis levels.
- Brazilian dominance: Brazil set to export 116.6 million tonnes in 2026, outcompeting U.S. origin via price discounts and capturing additional market share.
- Stocks still ample: Global soybean stocks to edge down to 121 million tonnes by end-August 2026, keeping supply risks contained despite record demand.
- Market tone: Overall impact is neutral to slightly bullish for the Black Sea region, with strong demand but comfortable inventories.
Market Update
Global soybean processing volumes are projected to reach a record 370.6 million tonnes in the 2025/26 season, according to Oil World. This marks a 12.5 million tonne increase versus the previous marketing year and a substantial 55 million tonne rise over the last three years, underscoring robust growth in demand for soybean meal and oil.
The United States is expected to set a new record, with crushing volumes surpassing 71 million tonnes compared with 66.5 million tonnes in 2024/25. The U.S. oilseed harvest for 2025/26 is projected at 115.99 million tonnes, providing ample raw material for processors. In Brazil, crushing capacity has also exceeded prior expectations, with volumes forecast to reach 61.4 million tonnes in 2026.
Increases in soybean crushing are not limited to major producers. Pakistan, Turkey, Russia, Ukraine, Paraguay, and Egypt are all recording higher processing volumes. This broad-based expansion highlights strengthening regional demand for protein meal and vegetable oil and reflects investment in local processing capacity.
Brazilian soybean exports accelerated in March and are expected to remain above prior-year levels. Brazil is forecast to ship 116.6 million tonnes in 2026, up from 108.2 million tonnes in 2025, leveraging price competitiveness over U.S. origin beans to capture a larger share of global trade. Nevertheless, market participants are monitoring Brazil’s new crop closely amid slower harvesting progress and deteriorating quality, with current production estimates at 179.0 million tonnes, up 7 million tonnes year-on-year.
Global soybean stocks are projected to ease slightly to 121 million tonnes by end-August 2026 from a record 123.5 million tonnes. Inventories remain elevated in Brazil at 50.6 million tonnes and in the United States at 11.6 million tonnes, easing concerns about tightness in global oilseed supply. By contrast, Argentina’s stocks are expected to decline from 33.4 million tonnes to 29.5 million tonnes, reflecting stronger offtake and less comfortable local balances.
Key Data Overview
| Item | Region/Country | Season/Year | Volume (million tonnes) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Global soybean processing (crush) | World | 2025/26 | 370.6 |
| Year-on-year crush increase | World | 2025/26 vs 2024/25 | +12.5 |
| Three-year crush increase | World | Last 3 years | +55.0 |
| Soybean crush | United States | 2025/26 | >71.0 |
| Soybean crush (previous season) | United States | 2024/25 | 66.5 |
| Oilseed harvest | United States | 2025/26 | 115.99 |
| Soybean crush | Brazil | 2026 | 61.4 |
| Soybean exports | Brazil | 2025 | 108.2 |
| Soybean exports | Brazil | 2026 | 116.6 |
| Soybean crop forecast | Brazil | 2026 | 179.0 |
| Global soybean stocks | World | End-Aug 2025 | 123.5 |
| Global soybean stocks | World | End-Aug 2026 | 121.0 |
| Soybean stocks | Brazil | End-Aug 2026 | 50.6 |
| Soybean stocks | United States | End-Aug 2026 | 11.6 |
| Soybean stocks | Argentina | End-Aug 2025 | 33.4 |
| Soybean stocks | Argentina | End-Aug 2026 | 29.5 |
Analysis: Implications for Black Sea and Global Trade
The rise in soybean crushing in Russia and Ukraine points to growing domestic processing capacity in the Black Sea region. This will support local production of soybean meal for the feed sector and vegetable oil for food and biofuel demand, while reducing dependence on imports. Over time, this could increase regional competition with South American exporters in nearby markets in Europe, the Middle East, and North Africa.
Brazil’s combination of strong supply, aggressive pricing, and larger export volumes is likely to cap upside in international soybean prices in the near term. For Black Sea importers and end-users, cheaper Brazilian beans and products are price supportive, but the underlying structural increase in global processing demand, evidenced by the 55 million tonne three-year rise, underpins longer-term price resilience.
Comfortable global stocks at 121 million tonnes provide a cushion against weather or logistical disruptions, limiting the risk of extreme price spikes. However, localized tightness, such as the projected drawdown in Argentina’s inventories, may still create regional basis volatility. For Black Sea traders and logistics coordinators, monitoring Brazil’s export pace toward the 116.6 million tonne target will be essential, as high shipment volumes can influence freight rates, vessel availability, and routing decisions on key Atlantic and cross-basin routes.
Source: Market Data
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