- Export Slowdown: Ukrainian grain and legume exports are down 23% year-on-year to 24.818 million tons as of March 23, 2025/26 MY.
- Major Grains Hit: Wheat exports are down 26% and corn exports down 19% versus the same period in 2024/25.
- Broad-Based Declines: Barley, rye, and flour exports have all fallen compared with last marketing year.
- Market Impact: Tighter Black Sea supply is supportive for grain prices but weighs on regional freight demand.
Ukrainian Grain Export Performance
Ukraine exported 24.818 million tons of grain and leguminous crops as of March 23 in the 2025/26 marketing year, according to the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food citing State Customs Service data. This lags the 32.214 million tons shipped by March 26 in the 2024/25 season, underscoring a significant 23% year-on-year decline in export activity.
| Commodity | 2025/26 MY Exports (to Mar 23, mln t) |
2024/25 MY Exports (to ~Mar 26, mln t) |
Change (mln t) | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total grain & legumes | 24.818 | 32.214 | -7.396 | -23% |
| Wheat | 9.562 | 12.912 | -3.350 | -26% |
| Corn | 13.485 | 16.621 | -3.136 | -19% |
| Barley | 1.932 | 2.196 | -0.264 | -12% |
| Rye (thousand t) | 0.200 | 10.800 | -10.600 | n/a* |
*Rye percentage change is not shown as volumes are very small in the current season.
Flour Export Dynamics
| Product | 2025/26 MY Exports (to Mar 23, thousand t) |
2024/25 MY Exports (to ~Mar 26, thousand t) |
Change (thousand t) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total flour | 47.8 | 52.8 | -5.0 |
| Wheat flour | 46.5 | 48.9 | -2.4 |
Flour exports have also softened, with total shipments at 47,800 tons, including 46,500 tons of wheat flour, down from 52,800 tons (48,900 tons wheat flour) in the 2024/25 marketing year. This highlights weaker demand for processed grain products alongside the broader raw grain export slowdown.
Market and Freight Implications
The 23% contraction in Ukrainian grain exports tightens Black Sea supply and is broadly supportive for international grain prices, especially in key import regions reliant on Ukrainian wheat and corn. The slower export pace may reflect smaller harvest volumes, stronger domestic consumption, or ongoing logistical bottlenecks in Ukrainian corridors.
For freight markets, lower outbound volumes from Ukrainian ports are bearish for regional vessel demand. Charterers and shipowners should anticipate continued muted activity out of Ukraine for the remainder of the 2025/26 marketing year, with trade flows potentially reorienting toward alternative Black Sea origins, particularly Russian supply.
Source: Market Data
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