- Bearish for Russian wheat exports: Export duty jumps from RUB 135.4/ton to RUB 516.5/ton from March 25, sharply reducing competitiveness.
- Neutral on wheat pricing benchmark: Indicative wheat price remains unchanged at $231.5/ton, despite the duty hike.
- Supportive for barley and corn exports: Barley and corn export duties stay at zero, potentially redirecting Black Sea export flows.
Russia Quadruples Wheat Export Duty from March 25
The Russian Ministry of Agriculture will sharply increase the wheat export duty from RUB 135.4 per ton to RUB 516.5 per ton, effective March 25, 2025. This nearly fourfold hike is designed to curb wheat outflows and support domestic market stability ahead of the spring season.
The new duty is calculated from an indicative wheat price of $231.5 per ton, unchanged from the previous period. In contrast, barley and corn export duties will remain at zero, even as their indicative prices adjust.
Price and Duty Snapshot
| Commodity | Indicative Price ($/ton) | Previous Indicative Price ($/ton) | Export Duty (RUB/ton) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wheat | $231.5 | $231.5 | 516.5 (up from 135.4) |
| Barley | $208.0 | $230.8 | 0 |
| Corn | $219.8 | $218.6 | 0 |
Market Impact and Trade Flows
Bearish for Russian Wheat Exports. The duty hike will erode Russia’s price advantage in global wheat markets, likely slowing export flows from Black Sea ports. Russian wheat is expected to lose competitiveness versus Ukrainian and European origins, particularly in price-sensitive destinations in North Africa and the Middle East.
The maintenance of zero export duties on barley and corn could redirect some export capacity toward these grains. However, wheat remains the dominant export from Black Sea terminals, so the overall trade impact will be felt most acutely in the wheat segment. The move underscores a protectionist policy stance aimed at domestic food security and price stability rather than maximizing export volumes.
Source: Market Data
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