Ukraine Corn High Moisture Limits Flow, Boosts Spot Prices

Key Takeaways

• Ukraine’s corn harvest is delayed by high grain moisture, with about a third of the crop still unharvested, mostly in the north and west.
• Elevator bottlenecks due to slow drying are restricting the inflow of new corn to market, causing capacity shortages.
• Spot corn prices remain firm and above forward values, showing bullish short-term sentiment due to tight supply.

Market Update

Difficult harvesting conditions continue to limit Ukrainian corn flow. Farmers have collected nearly 21 million tons, but roughly one-third remains in the field, primarily in the northern and western regions. High grain moisture is the main constraint, with corn needing a further 10-12% reduction before storage and shipment. This slows elevator operations, leading to capacity shortages and even temporary intake suspensions at some facilities.

The result is a tightly supplied spot market. Spot prices for Ukrainian corn are consistently above forward rates, indicating near-term supply concerns.

Analysts expect the upward direction to persist, projecting possible gains of $1-2 per ton weekly as logistical bottlenecks dominate market sentiment.

Analysis

Bullish: The logistical constraint from drying bottlenecks—not any crop shortfall—is supporting a spot market premium (backwardation). Domestic prices are tight and CPT values remain high. However, traders should watch for improvements in weather or elevator throughput, as they could unlock a surge of grain and pressure prices. For now, the key bullish factor remains restricted flow from high-moisture corn and elevator capacity limits.