- Record Russian exports: Russia shipped 0.5 million tons of sunflower oil to India and Turkey in Jan–Feb 2025, up 18% year-on-year and setting a new record for the period.
- Stronger Argentine competition: Argentina’s 2025 sunflower harvest forecast jumped to 7 million tons, lifting projected sunflower oil exports to 1.83 million tons and increasing global supply pressure.
- Turkey’s import demand: Turkey’s sunflower seed import forecast has been raised to 1.2 million tons despite falling domestic production, supporting demand for Black Sea supplies.
- Neutral to slightly bearish tone: Robust Russian demand is offset by Argentina’s higher export capacity, which could weigh on prices and market share for Black Sea exporters.
Market Update
Russian sunflower oil exports to India and Turkey reached a combined 0.5 million tons in January–February 2025, according to the federal center Agroexport. This marks an 18% increase versus the same period in 2024 and exceeds the previous record of 0.4 million tons set one year earlier, underscoring resilient demand from key Asian and Mediterranean buyers.
The competitive backdrop is shifting following the USDA’s March report on Argentina’s sunflower sector. The agency lifted its 2025 harvest forecast to 7 million tons, a substantial upgrade of 1.5 million tons from February and 1.4 million tons above the 2024/25 season. In line with the larger crop, USDA raised sunflower seed export projections to 0.6 million tons and sunflower oil export projections to 1.83 million tons, increases of 0.3 million and 0.2 million tons respectively.
Early Argentine sunflower shipments to the EU have not met the bloc’s standards and will be diverted to industrial processing for re-export to third countries. At the same time, Turkey continues aggressive sunflower seed purchases from Europe, prompting analysts to increase the country’s import forecast for the second consecutive month to 1.2 million tons, up 0.4 million tons year-on-year despite weaker domestic production.
Key Volume Indicators
| Indicator | 2024/25 or Prior Value | Latest 2025 Value | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Russian sunflower oil exports to India & Turkey (Jan–Feb) | 0.4 million tons | 0.5 million tons | +0.1 million tons (+18%) |
| Argentina sunflower harvest forecast | 5.5 million tons (Feb est.) | 7.0 million tons | +1.5 million tons |
| Argentina sunflower seed export forecast | 0.3 million tons | 0.6 million tons | +0.3 million tons |
| Argentina sunflower oil export forecast | 1.63 million tons | 1.83 million tons | +0.2 million tons |
| Turkey sunflower seed imports | 0.8 million tons (previous year) | 1.2 million tons | +0.4 million tons |
Analysis
The overall outlook is neutral to slightly bearish for Black Sea sunflower oil exporters. On the supportive side, Russian shipments to India and Turkey underscore solid demand from core importers, while Turkey’s rising sunflower seed import needs create additional opportunities for regional suppliers.
However, Argentina’s sharply improved harvest and higher export capacity, including a projected 1.83 million tons of sunflower oil, add substantial supply to the global market. As Argentine volumes build, competition in key destinations is likely to intensify, potentially pressuring prices and eroding market share for Black Sea origin oil and seeds over the coming months.
Source: Market Data
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