- Record exports: Kazakhstan’s Grain Union now projects total wheat and flour exports at a record 13 million tonnes for 2025/26 MY, with wheat alone seen at 7.8 million tonnes.
- Front‑loaded shipments: Wheat exports have already reached 5.14 million tonnes in the first five months—around 66% of the full‑season target—signaling an aggressive early export pace.
- Market diversification: Shipments are surging to Central Asia, Turkey, and new Mediterranean markets, while feed meal exports to China are offsetting a collapse in direct wheat sales.
- Logistics tailwind: Rising volumes and new routes are bullish for regional rail and port logistics, but sustainability of current export speeds remains a key risk to monitor.
Kazakhstan Lifts Wheat Export Outlook to 13 Million Tonnes
The Grain Union of Kazakhstan has sharply increased its 2025/26 marketing year export forecast for wheat, wheat flour, and feed flour (in grain equivalent) to 13 million tonnes, marking an all‑time high. Within this total, the wheat‑only export forecast has been revised to 7.8 million tonnes, underscoring Kazakhstan’s expanding role in regional grain supply.
Official data show that Kazakhstan exported 5.14 million tonnes of wheat in the first five months of the 2025/26 marketing year, more than 1.5 times the volume shipped over the same period a year earlier. This already accounts for around two‑thirds of the projected full‑season wheat export volume, highlighting an aggressive, front‑loaded shipment pattern.
Export Dynamics by Market
Growth has been driven by strong demand from Central Asian neighbors and emerging destinations. Compared with the previous marketing year, wheat exports rose by 78% to Uzbekistan, 80% to Kyrgyzstan, and 90% to Afghanistan. Shipments to Turkey surged by 2,600%, while exports to Georgia climbed by 380%, highlighting Kazakhstan’s deeper push into Black Sea and Mediterranean trade flows.
Kazakhstan also entered or expanded in new markets, delivering 140,000 tonnes of wheat to Algeria and 67,100 tonnes to Iran, along with smaller trial volumes to EU countries, Russia, and Tunisia. These moves signal a strategic effort to diversify away from a narrow regional customer base and tap into broader Mediterranean and Middle Eastern demand.
Shift from Wheat to Feed Meal in China Trade
Direct wheat exports to China have collapsed by 95% to just 6,500 tonnes over the first five months of the season. However, this decline has been more than offset by a surge in feed meal exports, which reached 1.5 million tonnes—2.4 times last year’s level for the same period and already 67.5% of the entire 2024/25 season total.
China alone absorbed 873,300 tonnes of Kazakhstan’s feed meal, indicating a pivot toward value‑added grain processing and a more diversified export mix. This shift reduces direct competition with Russian wheat in China while supporting higher margins and utilization rates for Kazakhstan’s domestic processing industry.
Flour Export Performance
Wheat flour exports totaled 991,100 tonnes in the first five months of the 2025/26 marketing year, an 11% year‑on‑year increase. The Grain Union expects full‑season flour exports to reach 1.88 million tonnes, confirming Kazakhstan’s status as a major regional supplier of processed wheat products in addition to raw grain.
Quantitative Snapshot
| Indicator | Period / Detail | Volume | Change vs Year Ago |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total wheat & flour export forecast (grain eq.) | 2025/26 MY | 13.0 mln t | Record high |
| Wheat export forecast | 2025/26 MY | 7.8 mln t | Higher vs prior outlook |
| Wheat exports | First 5 months 2025/26 | 5.14 mln t | +50% (1.5x) |
| Share of forecast wheat exports already shipped | First 5 months 2025/26 | ≈66% | Front‑loaded |
| Feed meal exports (total) | First 5 months | 1.5 mln t | 2.4x |
| Feed meal exports to China | First 5 months | 873,300 t | Strong increase |
| Wheat exports to China | First 5 months | 6,500 t | -95% |
| Wheat flour exports | First 5 months | 991,100 t | +11% |
| Wheat flour export forecast | Full season | 1.88 mln t | Up vs prior year |
Market Impact and Logistics Outlook
The combination of record export targets, rapid early shipments, and expanded destination markets is bullish for regional wheat logistics. Rail corridors and ports linking Kazakhstan with Central Asia, the Caspian, Black Sea, and Mediterranean are likely to see sustained high utilization, supporting freight demand and potentially tightening capacity during peak periods.
Kazakhstan’s growing presence in Turkey, Algeria, Iran, and Georgia introduces additional competition for Russian and Ukrainian wheat in Mediterranean and Middle Eastern tenders. At the same time, the surge in feed meal exports to China indicates a reconfiguration of grain trade flows, with more value‑added products leaving Kazakhstan. Traders should track whether current export volumes reflect structurally higher supply and competitiveness or a temporary front‑loading ahead of potential weather‑ or policy‑driven constraints later in the season.
Source: Market Data
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