- Mexican corn production is set to decline to 24.5 million tons in 2026/27, 3% below the prior year and 7% under the 10-year average as low prices and high costs curb planting.
- Corn imports into Mexico will edge higher to 26.8 million tons, with the U.S. retaining over 99% market share thanks to competitive pricing and strong logistics.
- Domestic prices are under pressure as surplus white corn and high import volumes push producer prices below production costs.
- Consumption is still growing, with total use projected at 52.5 million tons in 2026/27 on stronger yellow corn demand from feed and livestock sectors.
- Black Sea impact is neutral to slightly bearish, as reinforced U.S.–Mexico trade may marginally intensify competition in North Africa and the Middle East.
Mexico Corn Balance Sheet Outlook 2026/27
| Indicator | 2026/27 Forecast | Change vs. Prior Year | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corn Production | 24.5 million tons | -3% | 7% below 10-year average |
| Corn Imports | 26.8 million tons | +1% | U.S. share >99% |
| Total Corn Consumption | 52.5 million tons | +2% | Driven by feed and livestock demand |
Market Update
The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service forecasts Mexico’s 2026/27 corn production at 24.5 million tons, a 3% year-on-year decline and 7% below the ten-year average. Rising production costs, expectations for persistently low grain prices, and significant carryover stocks of white corn from the 2025/26 season are discouraging new planting.
The domestic market is in surplus, with elevated white corn output in 2025/26 combining with sustained high imports of both yellow and white corn from the United States. This oversupply has pushed producer purchase prices below the cost of production, squeezing margins and weakening incentives for farmers to expand or even maintain current acreage.
Mexican corn imports in 2026/27 are projected at 26.8 million tons, up 1% from the previous season. The United States is expected to keep more than 99% market share, supported by competitive pricing, reliable logistics, and substantial export capacity that collectively lock in U.S. dominance in the Mexican market.
Total corn consumption in Mexico is forecast to reach 52.5 million tons in 2026/27, a 2% increase year-on-year. Growth is concentrated in yellow corn demand from the feed and livestock sectors, which continues to expand despite pressure on producer returns in the grain sector.
Black Sea Market Impact
The implications for Black Sea corn exporters are assessed as neutral to slightly bearish. Mexico’s stronger reliance on U.S. corn, at a projected 26.8 million tons, effectively closes this destination to Black Sea origins and further entrenches U.S. dominance in the Western Hemisphere.
By consolidating volumes into Mexico, the U.S. may marginally enhance its competitiveness in other import markets through scale and logistics efficiencies. This could translate into additional pricing pressure for Black Sea exporters in overlapping demand centers such as North Africa and the Middle East. Nevertheless, the direct impact is limited, as Mexican demand is structurally oriented toward U.S. origin and has not been a major outlet for Black Sea corn.
Source: Market Data
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