- Bearish for Argentine exports: February soybean meal shipments fell 27% month-on-month and 34% year-on-year, with cumulative MY 2025/26 exports lagging last season by 910,000 tonnes.
- Demand softness: EU and Asian purchases declined notably, indicating weaker import demand from key destinations despite higher buying from Turkey and Indonesia.
- Neutral to slightly bearish for Black Sea meals: Slower Argentine exports and softer demand may pressure global protein meal values, indirectly weighing on Ukrainian and Russian sunflower meal prices.
Argentine Soybean Meal Export Performance
Argentina exported 1.33 million tonnes of soybean meal in February 2026, down sharply from 2.01 million tonnes in January and 1.82 million tonnes in February 2025, according to Oil World data. This represents a 27% month-on-month and 34% year-on-year decline, underscoring a notable slowdown in export activity.
For the October–February period of MY 2025/26, cumulative soybean meal exports reached 10.87 million tonnes, trailing the previous season’s 11.78 million tonnes by 910,000 tonnes, or 7.7%. The weaker pace highlights a moderation in Argentina’s role as a key soybean meal supplier during the early part of the marketing year.
Regional Demand Shifts
EU demand from Argentina softened, with imports slipping to 0.27 million tonnes in February from 0.46 million tonnes in January and 0.34 million tonnes in February 2025. Asian destinations showed an even steeper reduction, taking 0.58 million tonnes versus 1.0 million tonnes in January and 0.84 million tonnes a year earlier. In contrast, Indonesia and Turkey increased purchases, partially offsetting the broader pullback but not enough to prevent an overall decline in exports.
| Period / Region | Soybean Meal Exports (million tonnes) | Change vs Previous |
|---|---|---|
| February 2026 total | 1.33 | -0.68 vs Jan 2026 (2.01); -0.49 vs Feb 2025 (1.82) |
| EU imports from Argentina (Feb 2026) | 0.27 | -0.19 vs Jan 2026 (0.46); -0.07 vs Feb 2025 (0.34) |
| Asia imports from Argentina (Feb 2026) | 0.58 | -0.42 vs Jan 2026 (1.00); -0.26 vs Feb 2025 (0.84) |
| MY 2025/26 Oct–Feb cumulative | 10.87 | -0.91 vs prior year (11.78), or -7.7% |
Implications for Black Sea Meal Markets
The slowdown in Argentine soybean meal exports, combined with weaker EU and Asian demand, is neutral to slightly bearish for Black Sea oilseed product markets. With global buyers reassessing protein meal needs and pricing, Ukrainian and Russian sunflower meal may face additional competition in a softer demand environment. The loss of momentum from major importing regions suggests that regional meal values could come under pressure, even as some niche demand growth from Turkey and Indonesia provides limited support.
Source: Market Data
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