- Brazil wheat output seen at five-year low: 2026/27 harvest projected around 6.86–6.9 million tonnes, down roughly 12% year-on-year.
- Acreage contraction: Sown area expected to fall 5.2–15.5% amid weak margins, higher nitrogen fertilizer costs, and competition from alternative crops.
- Weather risk: Potential El Niño in late 2026 raises concerns about excessive rainfall and quality losses during harvest.
- Global market impact: Outlook is neutral to moderately bullish for Black Sea wheat as Brazil’s import needs rise and global supply tightens.
Brazil Wheat Production Outlook 2026/27
Brazilian wheat production in 2026/27 is forecast to decline to its lowest level in five years, with both Conab and Safras & Mercado projecting a crop just under 7 million tonnes. This downturn reflects deteriorating profitability, elevated nitrogen fertilizer prices, and broader cost inflation, which together are discouraging wheat planting in favor of competing crops.
The wheat sowing campaign is scheduled to begin in April 2026, with market participants closely watching how much acreage ultimately shifts away from wheat. Analysts are also monitoring the potential development of an El Niño pattern in the second half of 2026, as excessive rainfall during harvest could further compromise grain quality and usable output.
Key Forecast Numbers
| Metric | 2026/27 Forecast | Change vs. Prior Year | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wheat Production (Conab) | 6.90 million tonnes | -12% | Smallest crop since 2021/22 |
| Wheat Production (Safras & Mercado) | 6.86 million tonnes | -12% | Aligns closely with Conab estimate |
| Sown Area (Safras & Mercado) | 1.99 million ha | -15.5% | Reflects aggressive acreage cut |
| Sown Area (Market Operators) | 2.32 million ha | -5.2% | Signals more moderate reduction |
Market Impact and Black Sea Wheat Implications
The anticipated reduction in Brazil’s wheat crop implies higher import needs in 2026/27, reinforcing demand for seaborne wheat. Brazil typically relies on Argentina as its primary supplier, but tighter regional balances can push the country to access additional origins, indirectly tightening global availability.
For Black Sea exporters, this environment is assessed as neutral to moderately bullish. While Brazil may not immediately become a core destination for Black Sea wheat, the combination of lower South American output and weather-related quality risks supports a firmer global price floor. Exporters in the Black Sea region should track South American crop developments, as shifting trade flows and price competitiveness in secondary markets may create incremental demand opportunities.
Source: Market Data
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