- Bearish Black Sea Sunflower Oil: India’s sunflower oil imports plunged 45% month-on-month in February 2026 and are down 21% year-on-year for the November–February period, signaling softer demand from a key buyer.
- Bullish Palm Oil: Palm oil imports into India rose 11% month-on-month to 847,700 tonnes, underpinning overall growth in total vegetable oil inflows.
- Neutral-to-Bullish Veg Oil Complex: Despite the sunflower oil slump, total vegetable oil imports for November–February increased 6% year-on-year to 5.2 million tonnes, supported by stronger palm and soybean oil demand.
India’s Sunflower Oil Imports Slide as Palm Oil Gains Share
India’s vegetable oil imports softened slightly in February 2026, with total arrivals at 1.29 million tonnes, down 1.5% from January, according to the Solvent Extractors’ Association (SEA). The pullback was driven almost entirely by a steep decline in sunflower oil purchases, while palm and soybean oil inflows continued to expand.
February 2026 Import Snapshot
| Commodity | February 2026 Imports (tonnes) | Month-on-Month Change |
|---|---|---|
| Total Vegetable Oils | 1,290,000 | -1.5% |
| Sunflower Oil | 145,300 | -45.0% |
| Palm Oil | 847,700 | +11.0% |
| Soybean Oil | 299,000 | +7.0% |
Sunflower oil imports dropped to just 145,300 tonnes in February, a 45% decline from January levels. By contrast, palm oil arrivals climbed 11% month-on-month to 847,700 tonnes, while soybean oil imports increased 7% to 299,000 tonnes, highlighting a clear shift in India’s buying preferences toward cheaper palm oil alternatives.
Sunflower Oil by Origin
| Supplier | February 2026 Sunflower Oil Shipments to India (tonnes) |
|---|---|
| Russia | 54,300 |
| Ukraine | 42,000 |
| Argentina | 15,000 |
Black Sea origins remain central to India’s sunflower oil supply. Russia led with 54,300 tonnes shipped in February, followed by Ukraine at 42,000 tonnes. Argentina contributed 15,000 tonnes, underscoring a still-concentrated supplier base even as overall volumes decline.
November–February Cumulative Flows
| Metric | Nov 2025–Feb 2026 | Year-on-Year Change |
|---|---|---|
| Sunflower Oil Imports | 911,200 tonnes | -21.0% |
| Total Vegetable Oil Imports | 5.2 million tonnes | +6.0% |
Over the first four months of the 2025/26 marketing season (November–February), India’s sunflower oil imports totaled 911,200 tonnes, down 21% from the same period a year earlier. In contrast, total vegetable oil imports rose to 5.2 million tonnes from 4.9 million tonnes, a 6% year-on-year increase driven by heavier palm oil buying.
Market Implications and Price Bias
Bearish for Black Sea Sunflower Oil: India’s sharp month-on-month cut in sunflower oil purchases, combined with a 21% year-on-year drop in four‑month imports, signals weakening demand from a key global buyer. With Russia and Ukraine supplying the bulk of India’s sunflower oil, this erosion in volumes is likely to pressure Black Sea sunflower oil prices unless alternative markets absorb the surplus.
Bullish for Palm Oil Spreads: The 11% month-on-month rise in palm oil imports highlights India’s preference for lower-cost palm versus soft oils. This shift in the intake mix supports relative strength in palm oil against sunflower and soybean oil, particularly if price-sensitive buyers continue to optimize for cost amid uncertain macro conditions.
Traders should track whether the February sunflower oil slump extends into the spring, which would reinforce a structural pivot toward palm oil, or if it reflects temporary timing and pricing effects. Persistent weakness in India’s sunflower intake would likely cap rallies in Black Sea sunflower oil and could widen discounts needed to stimulate demand elsewhere.
Source: Market Data
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