- Record output: Global rapeseed production is projected to reach a record 86+ million tonnes in 2026/27 on the back of expanded acreage and mostly favorable weather.
- Ample supply: Increased production in the EU, India, and Australia alongside higher Canadian canola acreage points to comfortable global supplies.
- Pressure on Black Sea: Strong competition from major exporters is neutral to bearish for Black Sea rapeseed prices and export premiums.
- Weather risk: ENSO-neutral conditions with a potential El Niño shift add uncertainty that could tighten supply and support prices if adverse weather emerges.
Global Rapeseed Production Outlook
Oil World forecasts that global rapeseed production will exceed 86 million tonnes for the first time in the 2026/27 season, marginally above the projected 85.6 million tonnes in 2025/26. The increase is driven primarily by an expansion in planted area to an all-time high of 41.9 million hectares, up 1.2 million hectares year-on-year, supported by generally favorable weather during key yield formation stages.
| Region | 2025/26 Production (mln t) | 2026/27 Production (mln t) | Change (mln t) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Global | 85.6 | >86.0 | >0.4 |
| Canada | 21.8 | 21.6 | -0.2 |
| EU | 20.48 | 20.85 | +0.37 |
| India | 11.4 | 11.5 | +0.1 |
| Australia | 7.68 | 7.75 | +0.07 |
Regional Production and Acreage Trends
Canada is projected to produce 21.6 million tonnes of canola in 2026/27, slightly below the 21.8 million tonnes estimated for 2025/26, but improved crop conditions ahead of spring planting are expected to support a 4–5% increase in seeded area to 9.1–9.2 million hectares. In the European Union, production is forecast to reach 20.85 million tonnes, up from 20.48 million tonnes a year earlier, reflecting stable yields and modest acreage gains.
India’s rapeseed harvest is set to rise marginally to 11.5 million tonnes from 11.4 million tonnes, while Australia’s output is projected at 7.75 million tonnes compared with 7.68 million tonnes in 2025/26. Collectively, these incremental increases underscore a broadly expansionary trend in global rapeseed and canola supply, anchored by record global planting area.
Weather and ENSO Outlook
Weather patterns remain a key risk factor as La Niña transitions toward neutral conditions. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology expects ENSO-neutral conditions to persist at least until late autumn, with some climate models signaling the possibility of El Niño development from June, though confidence in this outcome is currently low. Any shift to El Niño that disrupts yields in major producers such as Canada or Australia could partially offset the otherwise comfortable global supply outlook.
Market Impact for Black Sea Rapeseeds
The anticipated record global rapeseed crop is neutral to bearish for Black Sea exporters, particularly Ukraine, as increased volumes from Canada, the EU, and Australia intensify competition in key import markets. Ample global availability is likely to cap international rapeseed prices and narrow export premiums for Black Sea origins.
Nonetheless, weather remains a critical swing factor. Should the ENSO pattern evolve toward El Niño, any resulting production setbacks in major exporting regions could tighten balance sheets and lend price support, partially offsetting the current oversupply narrative and providing some relief to Black Sea exporters.
Source: Market Data
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