- Dominant supplier: Ukraine retained a 92% share of EU sunflower oil imports in July–January 2025/26 MY despite lower export volumes.
- Tighter supply: Overall EU sunflower oil imports fell 18.8% year-on-year to 1.04 million tonnes, reflecting constrained supply rather than weaker demand.
- Harvest impact: Ukraine’s sunflower harvest decline from 13.0 to 10.5 million tonnes is capping processing and export potential.
- Logistics risk: Infrastructure attacks on Ukrainian port facilities have pressured logistics, though export flows have recently stabilized.
- Market tone: Neutral to slightly bearish, with reduced Black Sea availability likely supporting price firmness but not an aggressive rally.
EU Sunflower Oil Import Structure
| Supplier | July–Jan 2025/26 Volume (mln t) | Share of EU Imports | YoY Volume Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total EU Sunflower Oil Imports | 1.04 | 100% | -18.8% |
| Ukraine | 0.95 | ~92% | -25.8% (vs. 1.28 mln t) |
| Moldova | ~0.05 | 5% | n/a |
| Serbia | ~0.02 | 2% | n/a |
Market Update
Ukraine has maintained its role as the European Union’s primary sunflower oil supplier in the 2025/26 marketing year, despite a notable decline in shipment volumes. During July–January, EU imports of sunflower oil totaled just under 1.04 million tonnes, down 18.8% compared with the same period a year earlier.
Ukrainian exporters shipped around 0.95 million tonnes to the EU in the period, securing close to a 92% market share. This represents a sharp 25.8% drop from the 1.28 million tonnes exported in July–January 2024/25, underscoring a tighter supply backdrop from the Black Sea region.
The European Commission attributes the reduction primarily to a smaller Ukrainian sunflower seed harvest, which declined from roughly 13 million tonnes in 2024 to 10.5 million tonnes in 2025. The smaller crop has curtailed crushing volumes and export availability. Additional pressure has come from infrastructure attacks on Ukrainian port facilities, disrupting logistics, although recent reports suggest that export flows have stabilized.
Moldova and Serbia have emerged as secondary suppliers to the EU market, accounting for approximately 5% and 2% of sunflower oil imports respectively, but their combined contribution remains modest relative to Ukraine’s dominant position.
Market Analysis
The current backdrop is best characterized as neutral to slightly bearish for sunflower oil. On the one hand, the 19% decline in total EU imports signals a tighter supply environment driven by production shortfalls rather than demand weakness, which tends to be price-supportive. On the other hand, the stabilization of Ukrainian export logistics reduces the risk of further sharp supply shocks.
For traders and crushers, the key variables to monitor are Ukrainian crushing margins, port capacity utilization, and the pace at which alternative origins step in. Reduced seed availability in Ukraine may incentivize more aggressive offers from Moldova, Serbia, and potentially other origins, while also reshaping intra-EU crushing economics and margin distribution.
In the near term, any renewed infrastructure disruptions in the Black Sea, or evidence of further downgrades to Ukraine’s sunflower crop, could tilt the balance toward firmer prices. Conversely, smoother logistics and incremental gains from alternative suppliers would limit upside and keep the market in a more balanced to slightly bearish range.
Source: Market Data
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