- Exports at 4-year low: Australian canola shipments fell 18% year-on-year to 1.86 million tonnes in Oct–Jan 2025/26, the weakest level since 2021/22.
- EU and Pakistan demand slumps: EU imports from Australia dropped 35% to 1.12 million tonnes, while Pakistan halted purchases entirely from 342,000 tonnes a year earlier.
- Trade flows pivot to Asia and Middle East: UAE, China, and Japan sharply increased Australian canola imports, signaling a structural shift in global oilseed trade routes.
- Supportive for Black Sea oilseeds: Reduced Australian availability and tighter global canola supplies are mildly bullish for Black Sea rapeseed and sunflower exporters targeting EU and Asian buyers.
Australian Canola Export Performance
Australian canola exports totaled 1.86 million tonnes in October–January 2025/26, an 18% decline versus the same period of 2024/25. This is the weakest four-month export performance in four years for the major Southern Hemisphere supplier and reflects both reduced demand from traditional markets and evolving trade patterns.
| Period / Destination | 2024/25 Volume (tonnes) | 2025/26 Volume (tonnes) | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total exports (Oct–Jan) | 2,268,000 | 1,860,000 | -18% |
| EU (Oct–Jan) | 1,730,000 | 1,120,000 | -35% |
| Pakistan (Oct–Jan) | 342,000 | 0 | -100% |
| UAE (Oct–Jan) | 54,000 | 311,000 | +476% |
| China (Oct–Jan) | 0 | 185,000 | New |
| Japan (Oct–Jan) | 37,000 | 196,000 | +430% |
Monthly Export Dynamics
Monthly data underline the downtrend. January 2025 exports reached 571,000 tonnes, slipping from 602,000 tonnes in December 2025 and well below 784,000 tonnes in January 2024. The EU remained Australia’s key outlet, but its January 2025 intake fell to 369,000 tonnes from 462,000 tonnes in December and 543,000 tonnes a year earlier.
| Month / Destination | Volume (tonnes) |
|---|---|
| Total exports – January 2024 | 784,000 |
| Total exports – December 2025 | 602,000 |
| Total exports – January 2025 | 571,000 |
| EU – December 2025 | 462,000 |
| EU – January 2025 | 369,000 |
| EU – January 2024 | 543,000 |
Shifting Demand: EU Weakness vs. Emerging Buyers
The European Union, historically the dominant buyer of Australian canola, has sharply reduced intake, likely reflecting increased competition from other origins and changing crush demand. Pakistan’s complete withdrawal from Australian supply further amplified the export decline. In contrast, the United Arab Emirates, China, and Japan have emerged as key growth markets, absorbing significant volumes and signaling longer-term diversification in Australian export destinations.
Implications for Black Sea Oilseed Markets
The contraction in Australian canola availability is neutral to slightly bullish for Black Sea oilseeds. Tighter global canola supplies and reduced Australian flows into the EU create space for Black Sea rapeseed and sunflower oil, particularly in European and Asian markets where refiners seek alternative origins. While direct freight impacts for the Black Sea remain limited—given differing trade routes—the region’s exporters should closely track EU buying behavior and tender activity for signs of substitution away from Australian supply.
Source: Market Data
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