- China barley imports to edge up to 10.5 million tons in 2025/26, with domestic output rising to 2.3 million tons, signaling modest demand growth.
- Australia and Canada retain dominance in China’s barley supply despite higher prices, while Black Sea origins remain marginal players.
- Black Sea exporters stay price-competitive (Kazakhstan at $182.81/ton, Russia at $214.24/ton versus Australia at $261.35/ton) but face logistics and payment constraints that cap market share.
- Market tone is neutral to slightly bearish for Black Sea barley as structural bottlenecks offset pricing advantages and limit further penetration into China.
China Barley Supply and Demand Overview
China is expected to lift barley production to 2.3 million tons in the 2025/26 marketing year, up from 2 million tons in the prior season. Total barley imports are forecast at 10.5 million tons, consisting of 8.7 million tons of feed barley and 4.2 million tons of food barley, indicating only marginal growth in overall demand.
| Metric | 2024/25 | 2025/26 (Forecast) |
|---|---|---|
| China Barley Production | 2.0 million tons | 2.3 million tons |
| Total Barley Imports | 10.25 million tons | 10.5 million tons |
| Feed Barley Imports | n/a | 8.7 million tons |
| Food Barley Imports | n/a | 4.2 million tons |
Supplier Market Shares and Pricing
Australia remains China’s primary barley supplier with a 56% share of imports, followed by Canada at 15%. Despite significantly lower prices, Black Sea origins such as Kazakhstan and Russia continue to hold relatively small shares of the Chinese market.
| Origin | Approx. Market Share in China | Average Price (FOB, $/ton) |
|---|---|---|
| Australia | 56% | $261.35 |
| Canada | 15% | $279.42 |
| Kazakhstan | 3.3% | $182.81 |
| Russia | ~5% | $214.24 |
Black Sea Export Dynamics
Kazakhstan’s barley exports to China have expanded from 140,000 tons in 2020 to more than 350,000 tons by end-2025, supported by the lowest average pricing among suppliers. However, Russia and Kazakhstan both face significant logistical and payment hurdles, including transportation bottlenecks, limited infrastructure, and cross-border payment challenges, which prevent them from fully exploiting their price advantage.
Ukraine remains listed among traditional suppliers alongside France and Argentina, while Russia and Kazakhstan are categorized as emerging origins whose competitiveness depends on resolving structural constraints.
Market Outlook and Risk Factors
The outlook for Black Sea barley exporters to China is neutral to slightly bearish. The modest 2.4% growth in China’s barley imports points to stable but unspectacular demand, limiting upside for new entrants. In addition, the strong sensitivity of feed barley demand and pricing to Chinese corn values introduces notable volatility risk. For Ukrainian and other traditional exporters, maintaining efficient logistics and flexible payment solutions will be essential to defending market share against lower-priced Central Asian origins.
Source: Market Data
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