Global Wheat Production 2026/27: IGC Forecasts 2% Drop

• Global output risk: IGC projects a 2% decline in global wheat production in 2026/27, tightening balances after a record 2025/26 crop.
• Record current harvest: Major exporters, led by Russia, Ukraine, and the EU, are set for unprecedented 2025/26 wheat output, supporting ample near-term supply.
• Demand strength: Food use of wheat is expanding at the fastest pace in four years, reaching a new high in the current season.
• Stocks still comfortable: Despite the projected production drop, IGC expects ending stocks to remain above historical averages.
• Bias for prices: Overall setup is neutral to slightly bullish for Black Sea wheat exporters as tightening balances into 2026/27 could underpin prices.

Market Update

The International Grains Council (IGC) anticipates a 2% decline in global wheat production for the 2026/27 marketing year versus the current season. The outlook was presented by Alexander Karavaitsev, Senior Economist at IGC, during the Chinese Grains & Oils Congress 2026 in Shanghai on March 5.

In contrast, the 2025/26 season is expected to deliver record wheat output across key exporters, led by strong performance in the Black Sea region and substantial rebounds elsewhere. While the 2026/27 balance appears tighter, IGC still projects ending stocks above long-term averages.

Wheat Production by Major Exporter (2025/26 Forecast)

Country / Region	2025/26 Production (million tonnes)	Year-on-Year Change	Notes
Russia	87.6	+8%	Strong Black Sea output supports export competitiveness
Ukraine	26.0	+2%	Maintains role as key Black Sea supplier
Kazakhstan	19.1	+3%	Additional regional volume from Central Asia
Argentina	27.8	+50%	Record crop following prior weakness
Australia	35.6	+4%	Solid exportable surplus
Canada	40.0	+11%	Rebound in North American supply
European Union	143.4	+20%	Large recovery in EU output
United States	54.0	+0.3%	Stable production year-on-year

Demand and Stock Dynamics

Food consumption of wheat is growing at the fastest pace in four years, reaching a new maximum in the current season. This demand strength comes even as wheat competes with rice and corn in global feed and food markets, which could temper the overall pace of growth.

Despite the expected 2% drop in global wheat production in 2026/27, IGC projects that ending stocks will remain above historical averages. The market is therefore moving from a period of comfortable supply and record output toward a moderately tighter balance rather than an outright shortage.

Market Implications and Price Bias

The outlook is neutral to slightly bullish for Black Sea wheat exporters in the near term. Robust 2025/26 crops in Russia and Ukraine underpin competitive export offerings this season, while the forecast tightening in 2026/27 could lend support to prices if strong food demand persists.

Traders should watch how the transition from record 2025/26 production to a smaller 2026/27 harvest affects global balance sheets, export programs, and basis levels for Black Sea origins, particularly if consumption surprises to the upside or if competing grains underperform.

Source: Market Data