- Exports: Ukraine shipped 270,000 tons of sugar in September–February 2025/26 MY, with Lebanon and Syria absorbing 46% of total volumes.
- Acreage: Sugar beet plantings are forecast at 170,000 hectares for 2026, pointing to lower raw material availability.
- Production: Domestic sugar output is expected to fall nearly 25% to 1.3 million tons in 2026, reducing exportable surplus.
- Risk: Heavy concentration in Middle Eastern markets heightens exposure to geopolitical and demand-side disruptions.
Market Update
Ukrainian sugar producers exported 270,000 tons of sugar during the first half of the 2025/26 marketing year (September–February), according to the National Association of Sugar Producers of Ukraine "Ukrsugar."
Lebanon was the leading destination, taking 29% of Ukrainian sugar exports, followed by Syria with 17%. The European Union accounted for 14% of shipments, while North Macedonia and Mauritania received 6% and 5% respectively. Other markets made up the remaining share.
For the 2026 harvest, Ukrsugar forecasts sugar beet plantings at 170,000 hectares. On this acreage basis, industry analysts expect domestic sugar production to decline by roughly 25%, with output projected at around 1.3 million tons in 2026.
Export Structure and Production Outlook
| Indicator | Period / Year | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Sugar exports | Sep–Feb 2025/26 MY | 270,000 tons |
| Share of exports to Lebanon | Sep–Feb 2025/26 MY | 29% |
| Share of exports to Syria | Sep–Feb 2025/26 MY | 17% |
| Share of exports to EU | Sep–Feb 2025/26 MY | 14% |
| Share of exports to North Macedonia | Sep–Feb 2025/26 MY | 6% |
| Share of exports to Mauritania | Sep–Feb 2025/26 MY | 5% |
| Forecast sugar beet area | 2026 | 170,000 ha |
| Forecast sugar production | 2026 | 1.3 million tons (−25% y/y) |
Market Analysis
The anticipated 25% decline in Ukrainian sugar output to 1.3 million tons in 2026 signals a tighter domestic balance and reduced export potential in the upcoming season. With current shipments already heavily oriented toward Lebanon and Syria (a combined 46% of exports), any disruption in these Middle Eastern markets could quickly impact Ukrainian trade flows.
Lower production is likely to curb exportable surpluses, which may tighten regional supply and open space for competing origins in key import markets. Market participants should closely track confirmation of sugar beet planted area and in-season weather conditions during 2026, as deviations from the current acreage and yield assumptions will directly affect final output and export availability.
Source: Market Data
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