- Bullish: Turkey’s sunflower seed imports are projected to surge to 1 million tons in 2025/26, supporting sustained crush and export activity for sunflower oil.
- Bearish: Growing competition from Argentine origin in the second half of 2025/26 may pressure Black Sea and EU exporters on price and margins.
- Structural Shift: Tight domestic supply and strong refined oil exports are anchoring Turkey’s role as a key demand hub for global sunflower seed flows.
Turkey Sunflower Seed Import Outlook
Turkey is set to significantly expand sunflower seed imports for the second consecutive marketing year as domestic supply tightens and crush demand remains robust. USDA projections cited by APK-Inform indicate imports could reach approximately 1 million tons in 2025/26, up from 789,000 tons in 2024/25 and just 328,000 tons in 2023/24. This sustained growth underscores Turkey’s increasing reliance on foreign seed to support its sunflower oil export program.
Import Structure by Origin
As of end-December 2025, Black Sea and EU origins dominate Turkey’s import mix. Romania holds the leading position with a 61% market share, followed by Moldova at 24% and Bulgaria at 8%. This concentration highlights the continued importance of regional supply chains and logistics advantages from nearby producers.
| Season / Period | Import Volume (tons) | Change vs Previous Season |
|---|---|---|
| 2023/24 | 328,000 | – |
| 2024/25 (proj.) | 789,000 | +461,000 |
| 2025/26 (proj.) | 1,000,000 | +211,000 |
| Supplying Country / Region | Share of Turkey’s Imports (as of Dec 2025) |
|---|---|
| Romania | 61% |
| Moldova | 24% |
| Bulgaria | 8% |
| Other Origins (incl. Argentina, others) | 7% |
Shift Toward Argentine Origin
The import balance is expected to shift in the second half of the 2025/26 marketing year as Argentine sunflower seeds gain market share. Competitive pricing and available exportable surplus from Argentina are likely to reduce the EU and Black Sea dominance in Turkey’s origin mix, particularly during Q2–Q3 2026 when Argentine supplies are most competitive.
Export Dynamics and Demand Drivers
Turkey remains an active exporter of sunflower oil to more than 100 destinations, with a strong focus on African and Middle Eastern markets. In these regions, Turkish-origin oil competes directly with Ukrainian and Russian products. The combination of tight local seed availability and resilient export demand for refined oil underpins Turkey’s need for higher seed import volumes, even as overall procurement costs rise.
Market Impact and Trading Implications
The outlook is neutral to slightly bearish for Black Sea origins. While current data shows strong export performance from Romania and Bulgaria, increased Argentine participation later in the season may trigger heightened competition for Turkish crush capacity and put downward pressure on premiums for EU and Black Sea supplies. Traders should closely track Argentine harvest progress, basis levels, and freight spreads into Turkish ports to gauge relative competitiveness heading into mid-2026.
Source: Market Data
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