- Indicative new-crop Ukrainian rapeseed prices are at $530–535/t, with western Ukrainian forward deals reported at $540–543/t for 2,000–3,000 t volumes.
- Reduced acreage, adverse weather, and potential reseeding create material uncertainty for 2025 supply and could tighten the market.
- Limited rapeseed acreage growth in the EU and processors’ reliance on Ukrainian imports may intensify competition and price volatility if Ukraine’s harvest underperforms.
Ukrainian Rapeseed Market Overview
The Ukrainian rapeseed market is entering the spring period under significant production uncertainty. Analysts from PUSK, the analytical division of the All-Ukrainian Agrarian Council, highlight reduced planted area, ongoing weather risks, and the possibility of reseeding as key threats to available supply at the start of the new marketing year.
A smaller harvested area or yield losses would directly impact the volume of exportable rapeseed available to the market. This is particularly sensitive given the structural role Ukraine plays as a raw material supplier to European crushers and biofuel producers.
Price Levels and Forward Market Activity
Indicative prices for new-crop Ukrainian rapeseed are currently assessed at $530–535 per ton. In western regions, some individual forward contracts have already been concluded at $540–543 per ton for shipments of 2,000–3,000 tons, signaling early attempts by buyers to secure supply.
On the futures side, Euronext rapeseed has been trading in a relatively narrow band of €485–495/t without establishing a clear directional trend. The lack of a firm move reflects the market’s wait-and-see stance as participants assess weather developments and potential crop revisions in the coming weeks.
| Instrument / Region | Price Range | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Ukrainian rapeseed (new crop, indicative) | $530–535/t | FOB, general market indications |
| Ukrainian rapeseed (western region forward deals) | $540–543/t | Volumes of 2,000–3,000 t already contracted |
| Euronext rapeseed futures | €485–495/t | Sideways range, no clear trend yet |
Risk Factors and Strategic Considerations
PUSK analysts advise against aggressive forward contracting at this stage, stressing that production outcomes remain highly uncertain. Should the gross harvest fall below current expectations, prices could move sharply higher as exporters and processors compete for reduced volumes.
The situation is compounded by stagnant rapeseed acreage expansion within the European Union. With EU processors structurally dependent on Ukrainian imports, any material shortfall in Ukraine’s harvest would likely tighten the balance sheet in the second half of 2025, increasing both competition for Ukrainian supply and overall price volatility.
Market Outlook
Overall, the setup for the new marketing year appears neutral to bullish. The current premium of physical forward contracts in western Ukraine ($540–543/t) over broader indicative levels ($530–535/t) reflects early positioning by buyers focused on supply security. However, wider adoption of forward coverage across the market is likely to remain limited until there is clearer visibility on crop conditions and yield potential in the coming months.
Source: Market Data
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