- Moderating wheat growth: Russian wheat exports for February 1–20 rose 10.6% year-on-year to 1.66 million tons, but momentum has slowed sharply from nearly 50% growth in early February.
- Quota and geopolitics constrain flows: The export quota effective February 15 and ongoing geopolitical constraints are capping export growth and limiting upside for shipments.
- Mixed grains picture: Total grain and legume exports increased 4% to 2.06 million tons, while barley and corn volumes remain in decline despite a slower pace of contraction.
- Near-term outlook: Expected February wheat exports of 1.8–1.85 million tons, below last February’s 1.9 million tons, signal tighter Black Sea wheat availability, with a neutral to slightly bearish bias.
Russian Grain Export Performance, February 1–20 (Year-on-Year)
| Metric | Period | Volume (million tons) | Y/Y Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wheat exports | Feb 1–20 | 1.66 | +10.6% |
| Forecast wheat exports (full Feb) | Feb (estimate) | 1.80–1.85 | Below 1.90 in Feb 2025 |
| Total grain & legumes exports | Feb 1–20 | 2.06 | +4.0% |
| Barley exports | Two ten-day periods | 0.206 | -16.7% |
| Corn exports | Two ten-day periods | 0.1983 | -15.6% |
Market Update
Russian wheat exports reached 1.66 million tons between February 1–20, up 10.6% year-on-year, according to monitoring data from the Russian Grain Union. This follows a much stronger 48.6% surge recorded in the first ten days of February, underscoring a clear loss of momentum as the month progressed.
February wheat shipments are now projected at 1.8–1.85 million tons, below the 1.9 million tons exported in February 2025. This indicates that, despite positive year-on-year growth in early February, overall monthly wheat exports are likely to underperform last year’s levels.
Barley and corn exports remain on a downward trajectory, but the pace of contraction has eased. Barley shipments declined 16.7% over two ten-day periods to 206,000 tons, compared with a 68% drop in the first ten days alone. Corn exports fell 15.6% to 198,300 tons over the same two-week span, moderating from a 54% decline in the initial ten days of February.
In aggregate, Russia exported 2.06 million tons of grain and legumes from February 1–20, a 4% year-on-year increase after a stronger 23% rise registered in the first ten-day period. The data point to a broad softening in export growth across major grain categories as the month progressed.
Analysis and Trading Implications
The slowdown in Russian grain export growth highlights tightening conditions in the Black Sea export corridor. The export quota that came into force on February 15, combined with persistent geopolitical constraints, is clearly limiting shipment volumes and curbing the earlier strong growth in wheat exports.
While wheat exports still show a positive year-on-year gain, the shift from nearly 50% growth in early February to a much more moderate pace, along with the expected monthly underperformance versus last February, suggests either reduced available exportable surplus or a deliberate policy of managing outflows under the quota regime.
The easing rate of decline in barley and corn shipments may indicate that demand is stabilizing at lower volume levels, or that logistical and policy adjustments are beginning to smooth export flows. However, aggregate growth in total grain and legumes remains modest.
For traders, the environment remains neutral to slightly bearish for near-term wheat availability from the Black Sea. Quota utilization, any changes to export policy, and evolving geopolitical risks will be key drivers of Russian export performance for the remainder of the season.
Source: Market Data
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