- Export acceleration: Kazakhstani sunflower oil exports to China jumped 56% year-on-year to 81,500 tonnes in the first four months of 2025/26 MY.
- Meal breakout: Sunflower meal shipments to China surged 3.9-fold to a record 69,700 tonnes over the same period.
- Long-term potential: With China’s oil and fat market at ~18 million tonnes annually, Kazakhstan’s current share remains small but rapidly expanding.
- Market impact: Growing Kazakh volumes add a new competitive layer to the Black Sea sunflower complex but remain neutral for core Black Sea origins for now.
Kazakhstan Surges as Key Sunflower Supplier to China
Kazakhstan’s oil and fat sector is gaining significant traction in the Chinese market, with sunflower oil and meal exports posting exceptional growth in the opening months of the 2025/26 marketing year.
Export Performance: Sunflower Oil and Meal
| Commodity | Destination | Period (2025/26 MY) | Export Volume (tonnes) | Y/Y Change | vs 2023/24 MY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunflower oil | China | First 4 months | 81,500 | +56% | +82% |
| Sunflower meal | China | First 4 months | 69,700 | 3.9-fold increase | 45-fold increase |
| China oil & fat market | Domestic capacity | Annual | 18,000,000 | – | – |
Official data show sunflower oil shipments from Kazakhstan to China reached 81,500 tonnes in the first four months of 2025/26 MY, up 56% compared with the same period in 2024/25 and 82% higher than in 2023/24. This cements China as a rapidly expanding outlet for Kazakh refined vegetable oils.
The pivot is even more striking in sunflower meal. Following protocol agreements signed in late 2023, Kazakh oil mills exported 69,700 tonnes of sunflower meal to China in the first four months of the current season—a 3.9-fold year-on-year surge and a 45-fold increase versus 2023/24 MY.
Strategic Drivers and Market Context
Kazakhstan’s rise in China’s oilseed import mix is underpinned by geographic proximity, improving logistics, and expanding crushing capacity. These factors allow Kazakh exporters to offer competitive delivery terms into western and northern China, supporting the rapid volume growth observed this season.
Despite recent gains, Kazakhstan’s share of China’s approximately 18 million tonne oil and fat market remains modest, highlighting ample headroom for further expansion if supply reliability and quality standards are maintained.
Regional Trade Impact and Market View
The acceleration of Kazakh sunflower oil and meal shipments adds a new competitive element to the Black Sea sunflower oil complex. While volumes are still small relative to traditional Black Sea exporters, Kazakhstan’s growing footprint signals an incremental shift in regional trade flows and diversification of China’s sourcing base.
For now, this dynamic is assessed as neutral for core Black Sea origins: Kazakhstan’s exports enhance competition at the margin but are not yet large enough to materially displace established suppliers. However, continued capacity expansion and deeper integration with Chinese buyers could gradually reshape market shares in the medium term.
Industry Engagement
Yadykar Ibragimov, Chairman of the National Association of Oilseed Processors (NOPA), is set to present Kazakhstan’s export potential at the Chinese Grains & Oils Congress 2026 in Shanghai on March 5. NOPA, acting as the conference’s general partner, is expected to emphasize Kazakhstan’s role in meeting China’s growing demand for vegetable oils and protein meals.
Source: Market Data
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