- Scale of imports: Bulgaria has contracted up to 400,000 tons of Argentine sunflower seeds, equivalent to around 26–27% of its 1.5 million ton domestic crop.
- Regional impact: Combined Bulgarian and Romanian purchases could exceed 500,000 tons, significantly boosting sunflower seed availability for Balkan processors.
- Price arbitrage: Argentine FOB values at $470–500/MT and CIF Bulgaria at $580–590/MT offer a margin against domestic DAP Varna/Burgas prices of about €520/MT.
- Bearish signal: The sizeable import program is expected to cap upside in Black Sea sunflower seed prices and pressure local farmers who are holding back supply.
Market Update
Bulgaria is moving to secure record sunflower seed imports from Argentina, with up to 400,000 tons booked according to local media cited by OleoScope. The first vessel, loaded with roughly 40,000 tons, is currently off Morocco and is expected to arrive at Bulgarian ports around March 1.
In total, nine vessels are scheduled for Bulgaria, while three additional ships are targeting Romania, one of which is already on the water. These flows could lift combined Bulgarian and Romanian sunflower seed imports above 500,000 tons in the coming weeks, materially improving raw material availability for Balkan processors.
The scale of the program is notable versus Bulgaria’s domestic sunflower production, estimated near 1.5 million tons. The Argentine volumes alone would cover around 26–27% of the national harvest, making imports a key factor in the country’s crushing and processing balance for this season.
Price and Arbitrage Overview
Argentine sunflower seeds are currently quoted at $470–500/MT FOB, translating into CIF Bulgaria levels of $580–590/MT. Against indicative domestic DAP Varna/Burgas prices around €520/MT, this structure offers a favorable arbitrage for importers and processors, encouraging additional seaborne purchases into the Black Sea region.
| Market | Term | Price | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina | FOB sunflower seeds | $470–500/MT | Export offers |
| Bulgaria | CIF sunflower seeds (Argentine origin) | $580–590/MT | Landed cost indication |
| Bulgaria (Varna/Burgas) | DAP sunflower seeds | ≈ €520/MT | Domestic price reference |
| Bulgaria | Domestic sunflower production | ~1.5 million tons | 2023/24 harvest estimate |
| Bulgaria | Contracted Argentine imports | Up to 400,000 tons | ~26–27% of domestic output |
| Bulgaria & Romania | Total expected imports | >500,000 tons | Combined regional inflows |
Market Analysis
The large Argentine sunflower seed inflows underline tight domestic availability in Bulgaria following a weaker harvest and ongoing farmer holding. Producers have been reluctant sellers, expecting higher prices, but the confirmed import program significantly increases supply options for crushers and may limit further price appreciation.
With import volumes equivalent to over one-quarter of Bulgaria’s crop and additional tonnage moving into Romania, South American origins are becoming increasingly competitive within the Black Sea processing complex. This shift is broadly bearish for regional sunflower seed prices, as imported supply reduces the bargaining power of local farmers and may weigh on basis levels across the Balkans.
Source: Market Data
Leave a Reply