- India soybean meal exports fell 54% YoY in January 2026 to 132,000 tonnes, as higher domestic prices and slower processing curbed overseas sales.
- Indian soy and rapeseed meal prices have risen sharply since December 2025, tightening export competitiveness and pressuring shipment volumes.
- Russia became a net soybean exporter in 2025, shipping around 750,000 tonnes on the back of a record 9 million tonne harvest.
- Altai Krai emerged as a key Russian soybean hub, supplying 17.7% of national exports in 2025 and lifting January 2026 shipments by 57% YoY.
- Market impact is neutral to bearish for Black Sea soybean meal but broadly bullish for Black Sea soybeans as Russian supply expands and diversifies regional trade flows.
India Soybean Meal & Rapeseed Meal Export Performance
India’s soybean meal exports fell to 132,000 tonnes in January 2026, down sharply from 286,000 tonnes a year earlier. The EU, Nepal, and Kenya remained the core demand centers, with Kenya sourcing nearly 80% of its soybean meal needs from India in 2025. However, the combination of tighter raw bean availability and a seasonal slowdown in crushing has constrained export availability.
Export prices for soybean meal at Indian ports have risen by about 25% since December 2025, eroding price competitiveness versus alternative origins. This rally is likely to keep near-term export volumes under pressure, especially into price-sensitive African and Asian destinations.
Rapeseed meal shipments followed a similar downtrend, dropping to a multi-year low of 65,000 tonnes in January 2026 from 132,000 tonnes in January 2025. Flows to China slowed markedly to around 30,000 tonnes per month in December–January versus 60,000–103,000 tonnes per month during June–October 2025. The slowdown reflects both tighter Indian supply and firmer prices.
| Metric | Period | Value | Year-on-Year Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| India soybean meal exports | Jan 2026 | 132,000 tonnes | -54% vs 286,000 tonnes (Jan 2025) |
| India rapeseed meal exports | Jan 2026 | 65,000 tonnes | -51% vs 132,000 tonnes (Jan 2025) |
| Rapeseed meal exports to China | Dec 2025–Jan 2026 | ~30,000 tonnes/month | Down from 60,000–103,000 tonnes/month (Jun–Oct 2025) |
| Commodity | Period | Price Level | Change vs Previous Period |
|---|---|---|---|
| Indian soybean meal (export, ports) | Dec 2025 onward | Not specified | +25% vs pre-Dec 2025 |
| Indian rapeseed meal (export, ports) | Jan 2026 | $248/tonne | Up from $195–217/tonne (Mar–Dec 2025) |
Rapeseed meal prices at Indian ports climbed to $248 per tonne in January 2026, versus a $195–217 per tonne range during March–December 2025. The rally is tied to depleted old-crop stocks and lower processing volumes, which have tightened nearby supply and underpinned export values despite weaker volumes.
Russia’s Soybean Export Shift and Regional Dynamics
Russia’s soybean sector marked a structural shift in 2025 as exports, at roughly 750,000 tonnes, exceeded imports of about 500,000 tonnes for the first time. A record 9 million tonne harvest, up 30% year-on-year, has supported this transition and reduced the country’s reliance on foreign soybeans.
Key demand centers for Russian soybeans include China, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and other regional buyers. Expanded acreage and improved profitability relative to traditional grains have encouraged soybean cultivation even in non-traditional regions such as parts of Siberia, broadening the country’s production base.
| Region / Metric | Period | Value | Year-on-Year Change / Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Russia soybean harvest | 2025 | ~9 million tonnes | +30% YoY |
| Russia soybean exports | 2025 | ~750,000 tonnes | First time exceeding imports |
| Russia soybean imports | 2025 | ~500,000 tonnes | Below export volume |
| Altai Krai soybean exports | 2025 | 133,000 tonnes | 17.7% of Russia’s total; up from <98,000 tonnes in 2024 |
| Altai Krai soybean exports | Jan 2026 | 17,100 tonnes | +57% vs 10,900 tonnes (Jan 2025) |
Altai Krai has become a focal point of this export growth, contributing 17.7% of Russia’s total soybean exports in 2025 with shipments of 133,000 tonnes. January 2026 exports from the region rose 57% year-on-year to 17,100 tonnes, serving Kazakhstan, Belarus, and Kyrgyzstan as primary markets.
Market Impact and Price Outlook
Neutral to Bearish for Black Sea Soybean Meal: India’s declining export volumes and higher offer levels open space for Black Sea suppliers to capture additional demand in the EU and African markets. However, India’s price strength also lends support to broader regional meal values, partially offsetting the bearish impact from improved Black Sea availability.
Bullish for Black Sea Soybeans: Russia’s move from net importer to net exporter, underscored by a 30% production jump and expanding crushing capacity, is structurally bullish for Black Sea soybean trade flows. The key variable remains Chinese demand, which will largely determine how much of Russia’s surplus is absorbed at competitive price levels versus redirected into neighboring CIS and Eurasian markets.
Source: Market Data
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