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Brazil Soybean Exports Surge in Early 2026

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by

Viktoriia Ray
in
  • Bearish for Black Sea: Brazil’s soybean exports are surging, intensifying competition and pressuring Black Sea soybean and meal prices.
  • Logistics Watch: Weather risks may delay some February shipments into March, but overall export volumes remain significantly higher year-on-year.
  • Processed Products Strength: Rising soybean meal and oil exports from Brazil weigh on Black Sea crush margins and export opportunities.

Brazil Soybean Export Surge

Brazil has sharply accelerated soybean and processed product exports in early 2026, reinforcing its position as a dominant supplier to global markets and heightening competitive pressure on Black Sea exporters.

Export Volumes: Year-on-Year Comparison

Month 2026 Product Exports 2026 (mln tons) Exports 2025 (mln tons) Y/Y Change
January Soybeans 1.88 1.07 +76%
February (forecast) Soybeans 11.70 6.40 +83%
January Soybean Meal 1.87 1.66 +13%
February (forecast) Soybean Meal 1.90 1.70 +12%
January Soybean Oil 0.146 0.088 +66%

Market Update

Data from Brazil’s shipping agency ANEC show a strong acceleration in soybean exports at the start of 2026. January soybean shipments reached 1.88 million tons versus 1.07 million tons a year earlier, reflecting improved availability and aggressive commercial selling.

The pace is expected to intensify in February, with ANEC forecasting soybean exports at 11.7 million tons, nearly double the 6.4 million tons recorded in February 2025. Soybean meal exports for February are projected at 1.9 million tons, up from 1.7 million tons last year.

Processed product flows were also robust in January. Soybean oil exports climbed to 146,000 tons from 88,000 tons year-on-year, while soybean meal shipments rose to 1.87 million tons compared with 1.66 million tons in January 2025.

Industry participants highlight that adverse weather could push part of the February soybean program into early March delivery slots. However, even with these timing shifts, overall export volumes remain well above 2025 levels.

Implications for Black Sea Market

For the Black Sea region, Brazil’s aggressive export pace is decisively bearish. The sharp year-on-year increase in February soybean export forecasts signals abundant South American supply into key Asian and European demand centers, where Black Sea origins traditionally compete.

As Brazilian logistics gradually normalize despite weather-related disruptions, Ukrainian and Russian exporters may be forced to adjust offers and basis levels to retain market share. Rising Brazilian exports of soybean meal and oil also pressure Black Sea crush margins, curbing the region’s ability to place both beans and processed products into traditional destination markets.

Source: Market Data

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