- USDA lifted Turkey’s 2025/26 sunflower seed import forecast to 1 million tons, a six-year high, amid domestic crop shortfalls.
- EU sunflower seed exports to Turkey surged to 758,000 tons in Sep–Nov 2025/26, a 26-fold increase year-on-year.
- Black Sea sunflower oil flows to Turkey dropped sharply, with Ukraine down nearly 30% and Russia down 15% in Sep–Jan 2025/26.
- Shift from importing processed oil to raw seeds pressures Black Sea crushers while supporting seed-origin demand, especially in the EU.
Turkey’s Sunflower Seed Import Surge
The U.S. Department of Agriculture raised Turkey’s sunflower seed import estimate to 1 million tons for the 2025/26 marketing season, according to Russia’s federal “Agroexport” center. This represents an increase of 200,000 tons from the previous forecast and a year-on-year gain of 200,000 tons, marking the highest import level in six years.
The upward revision reflects a domestic production shortfall and a strategic shift in Turkey’s procurement pattern, as buyers turn from finished sunflower oil toward raw sunflower seeds. Elevated Black Sea sunflower oil prices have reduced the competitiveness of importing processed oil versus sourcing seeds for domestic crushing.
EU and Black Sea Trade Flows
The European Union has become Turkey’s primary sunflower seed supplier, shipping 758,000 tons in September–November 2025/26. This volume represents a dramatic 26-fold increase compared with the same period in the previous season, underscoring how quickly trade flows have realigned in response to Turkey’s changing demand profile.
In contrast, traditional Black Sea exporters have seen a sharp reduction in sunflower oil shipments to Turkey in the first five months of 2025/26 (September–January). Ukrainian sunflower oil exports to Turkey fell nearly 30% to less than 60,000 tons, while Russian exports declined 15% to 370,000 tons versus the same period a year earlier.
| Item | Period / Season | Volume (tons) | Change vs Prior |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turkey sunflower seed imports (forecast) | 2025/26 | 1,000,000 | +200,000 tons YoY |
| EU sunflower seed exports to Turkey | Sep–Nov 2025/26 | 758,000 | 26-fold YoY increase |
| Ukrainian sunflower oil exports to Turkey | Sep–Jan 2025/26 | <60,000 | ≈−30% YoY |
| Russian sunflower oil exports to Turkey | Sep–Jan 2025/26 | 370,000 | −15% YoY |
Market Impact and Trading Implications
The shift from importing processed oil to raw seeds is bearish for Black Sea sunflower oil exporters and neutral-to-bullish for sunflower seed origins, particularly in the EU. Reduced oil flows to a major regional buyer point to margin pressure for Black Sea crushing facilities, as capacity utilization and export volumes face headwinds.
For traders, Turkey’s evolving sourcing pattern may signal more than a temporary response to price differentials. If sustained, this pivot could structurally alter regional crush demand, freight flows, and basis levels for both seeds and oil. Monitoring Turkey’s domestic crop prospects, import policies, and crush margins will be critical for anticipating further adjustments in trade flows.
Source: Market Data
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