- Bullish – Black Sea Sunflower Meal: China’s domestic sunflower meal covers only 16% of feed demand, creating a structural import gap that supports sustained Black Sea export flows.
- Neutral/Bearish – Russian Sugar: Export push above 1 million tons is constrained by logistics and weaker global prices, while shrinking farmer margins signal medium-term supply risks.
- Bullish – Black Sea Wheat to Central Asia: Kazakhstan’s Russian grain imports surged 23-fold year-on-year in December, reinforcing strong regional demand and freight opportunities.
China Feed Ingredient Demand
USDA (February 2026) projects China’s total feed consumption of corn, wheat, and barley at a record 278.7 million tonnes in 2025/26, implying average annual growth of 2.6% over the last five seasons. Grain imports are recovering from a sharp pullback, rebounding from 16.2 million tons to a projected 24.5 million tons after peaking at 52.9 million tons in 2023/24.
In protein meals, total feed consumption of soybean, rapeseed, and sunflower meals is expected to reach 99.2 million tons versus domestic production of 97.7 million tons, implying around 4.9 million tons of import potential. Sunflower meal is the tightest segment: domestic output covers only about 16% of China’s feed consumption, locking in high import dependency and underpinning demand for Black Sea origins.
Russian Sugar Export Strategy
According to IKAR, Russia exported roughly 700,000 tons of sugar from the start of the current season through January and is targeting more than 1 million tons by season-end. The export push is driven by structurally weaker domestic demand, reflecting population decline, reduced direct sugar consumption, and growing competition from alternative sweeteners, which already exceed 900,000 tons in sugar equivalents in 2025.
IKAR expects sugar beet acreage to contract to about 1.1 million hectares in 2026 due to eroding farmer margins. Even with projected productivity gains of 4.3% to 5.6 tonnes per hectare that should keep total production near 6.25 million tonnes, low global prices and logistical constraints that limit exports mainly to neighboring markets cap upside and pressure margins.
Kazakhstan–Russia Grain Flows
Kazakhstan’s imports of Russian grain jumped to 134,800 tons in December 2025, valued at $22.6 million, compared with just 5,834 tons a year earlier. Wheat led the surge at 115,800 tons, followed by barley at 16,100 tons and rye at 560 tons, underscoring robust regional demand for Black Sea grain and supporting stable cross-border freight volumes.
| Item | Period / Season | Volume / Value |
|---|---|---|
| China total feed (corn, wheat, barley) | 2025/26 (projected) | 278.7 million tonnes |
| China grain imports (corn, wheat, barley) | 2023/24 peak | 52.9 million tons |
| China grain imports | Post-contraction low | 16.2 million tons |
| China grain imports | Current season (projected) | 24.5 million tons |
| Total protein meal feed use (soy, rape, sunflower) | China, 2025/26 | 99.2 million tons |
| Domestic protein meal production | China, 2025/26 | 97.7 million tons |
| Protein meal import potential | China, 2025/26 | ≈4.9 million tons |
| Russian sugar exports | Season start–January | ≈700,000 tons |
| Russian sugar exports | Full season (target) | >1 million tons |
| Russian sugar beet area | 2026 (forecast) | 1.1 million hectares |
| Russian sugar production | Season forecast | 6.25 million tonnes |
| Kazakhstan Russian grain imports | Dec 2025 | 134,800 tons | $22.6 million |
| …of which wheat | Dec 2025 | 115,800 tons |
| …of which barley | Dec 2025 | 16,100 tons |
| …of which rye | Dec 2025 | 560 tons |
| Kazakhstan Russian grain imports | Dec 2024 | 5,834 tons |
Market Implications
Bullish for Black Sea Sunflower Meal: China’s 84% import dependency on sunflower meal creates a durable pull factor for Black Sea exporters, especially if overall grain imports continue to normalize as projected by USDA.
Neutral to Bearish for Russian Sugar: Higher export volumes are offset by logistical limitations to nearby markets and weaker world prices, while declining beet margins hint at possible supply tightening beyond 2026.
Bullish for Black Sea Wheat into Central Asia: The 23-fold year-on-year increase in Kazakhstan’s Russian grain imports demonstrates resilient regional demand and supports continued utilization of Black Sea–Central Asia logistics corridors.
Source: Market Data
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