- Bullish Corn: Ukrainian corn exports surged 42% month-on-month and 41% year-on-year in early February 2026, signaling strong demand and efficient export logistics.
- Bearish Wheat: Wheat exports dropped 57% year-on-year, highlighting weaker demand or constrained supply relative to other exporters.
- Grain Complex: Total grain exports (corn, wheat, barley) rose 33% versus January 2026, with corn increasingly dominating Ukraine’s export mix.
Market Update
Ukraine exported just over 1.7 million tons of corn during the first 15 days of February 2026, a 42% increase versus the same period in January 2026 and 41% higher than first-half February 2025. This underscores robust export demand and improved Black Sea logistics for corn.
In contrast, wheat exports fell to 265.7 thousand tons in the first half of February 2026, down 9% from the first half of January 2026 (292.1 thousand tons) and 57% below the 622.2 thousand tons shipped in the comparable period of February 2025.
Barley exports remained marginal at 10.2 thousand tons. No barley was exported in the first half of January 2026, while 41.4 thousand tons were shipped in the same period of 2025.
Combined exports of corn, wheat, and barley totaled 1.98 million tons for the first 15 days of February 2026, up 33% from January’s 1.49 million tons and 6% above the 1.88 million tons exported in the same period of February 2025.
Export Volume Comparison
| Commodity | Period | Export Volume (thousand tons) | Vs Previous Month | Vs Previous Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corn | Feb 1–15, 2026 | 1,700.0 | +42% vs Jan 1–15, 2026 | +41% vs Feb 1–15, 2025 |
| Wheat | Feb 1–15, 2026 | 265.7 | -9% vs Jan 1–15, 2026 (292.1) | -57% vs Feb 1–15, 2025 (622.2) |
| Barley | Feb 1–15, 2026 | 10.2 | From 0.0 in Jan 1–15, 2026 | -75% vs Feb 1–15, 2025 (41.4) |
| Total Grain (Corn + Wheat + Barley) | Feb 1–15, 2026 | 1,980.0 | +33% vs Jan 1–15, 2026 (1,490.0) | +6% vs Feb 1–15, 2025 (1,880.0) |
Market Analysis
Bullish for Corn: The strong 42% month-on-month and 41% year-on-year increase in corn exports points to solid demand and well-functioning export channels through the Black Sea. The elevated shipment pace can tighten available supplies, offering support to regional and potentially global corn prices as buyers front-load purchases ahead of spring.
Bearish for Wheat: The 57% year-on-year collapse in wheat exports suggests weaker competitiveness or constrained availability of Ukrainian wheat relative to other origins. If this pattern persists, it may free up logistics capacity for corn while pressuring wheat basis levels and shifting trade flows toward alternative exporters.
Overall, the grain export mix is tilting more heavily toward corn, with wheat and barley playing a reduced role. Traders and logistics coordinators should monitor whether this trend extends into late February and March, as it will influence freight allocation, Black Sea port congestion, and relative price spreads between corn and wheat.
Source: Market Data
Leave a Reply