- Higher Brazilian output: Soybean harvest projected at 178 million tons in 2025/26, up 6.5 million tons year-on-year, boosting global supply.
- Expanded acreage: Additional 1.5 million hectares of soybean plantings offset lower average productivity.
- Mato Grosso progress: Harvest 47% complete with yields in line with optimistic expectations.
- Corn decline: Brazil’s corn harvest seen slightly lower at 138.4 million tons, down 1.9% from last season.
- Bearish for Black Sea: Strong South American availability increases competition, pressuring prices and premiums for Black Sea soybeans.
Brazil Soybean Production Outlook
Brazil’s National Supply Company (Conab) projects the country’s soybean harvest in 2025/26 at 178 million tons, an increase of 6.5 million tons compared with the previous cycle. The larger crop cements Brazil’s role as the leading global soybean supplier and adds to expected export availability in the upcoming marketing year.
In Mato Grosso, Brazil’s top soybean-producing state, fieldwork is advancing rapidly. Harvest progress has reached 47%, and reported yields are broadly matching earlier optimistic expectations. Despite a modest decline in average productivity from 4,310 kg/ha to 4,244 kg/ha, the expansion of the planted area by 1.5 million hectares more than compensates, driving total output higher.
Brazil Corn Production Update
Conab’s latest assessment points to a slight contraction in Brazil’s corn harvest. Total production is forecast at 138.4 million tons, down 1.9% versus last season. While still historically high, the reduced corn volume contrasts with the expansion in soybean output and may influence crop rotation decisions and export flows across the grains complex.
Key Production Metrics
| Item | Current Season | Previous Season | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil Soybean Production (million tons) | 178.0 | 171.5 | +6.5 |
| Brazil Corn Production (million tons) | 138.4 | 141.1 | -1.9% |
| Average Soybean Yield (kg/ha) | 4,244 | 4,310 | -66 |
| Soybean Planted Area Change (million ha) | +1.5 | – | Expansion |
| Mato Grosso Soy Harvest Progress (%) | 47 | – | Ongoing |
Implications for Black Sea Oilseed Exporters
The projected increase in Brazil’s soybean production is broadly bearish for Black Sea oilseed exporters. Higher South American supply, particularly during the second quarter export peak, is likely to intensify competition in key Asian and European markets. The additional 6.5 million tons of Brazilian soybeans could cap international price rallies and compress basis levels, limiting premium opportunities for Ukrainian and Russian origins.
Buyers in traditional Black Sea destinations may shift a larger share of their demand toward Brazilian supplies if competitive FOB and freight combinations emerge. This dynamic could force Black Sea exporters to adopt more aggressive pricing strategies or target niche markets to defend market share during Brazil’s export window.
Source: Market Data
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