- Bearish: Chinese vegetable oil prices fell across all major categories by mid-February, led by a 4% drop in rapeseed oil and a 3.55% decline in palm oil.
- Neutral: The soybean complex showed relative resilience, with soybean prices steady despite a 2.5% fall in soybean oil and a marginal 0.44% decline in soybean meal.
- Bearish: Pre-Spring Festival wait-and-see sentiment is curbing trading activity, adding downside pressure in the absence of strong fundamental or currency support.
- Neutral to Bearish for Black Sea Sunflower Oil: Weaker Chinese vegoil prices and softer rapeseed oil may compress import premiums for Black Sea sunflower oil, though post-holiday demand could offer a partial offset.
Chinese Vegetable Oil Market Update
The Chinese vegetable oil market saw broad-based price declines through mid-February 2026, according to data from the China Commodity Analytical Center SunSirs. Rapeseed oil led the move lower, falling more than 4% to CNY 9,880/t, while palm oil declined 3.55% to CNY 8,870/t. Soybean oil prices slipped 2.5% to CNY 8,424/t, but the underlying soybean market held broadly steady at CNY 4,468/t. Soybean meal edged down by 0.44% to CNY 3,164/t, even as inventories continue to trend lower.
Dalian soybean oil futures for February delivery traded at $1,182.50/t on February 11, down $2.93/t from the prior session’s $1,185.43/t. Overall, the soybean complex proved relatively more resilient than palm and rapeseed segments, though soybean meal reserves are expected to decline toward approximately 700,000 tons by the end of the month, reflecting steady downstream demand.
With the Spring Festival approaching, most market participants have shifted to a cautious, wait-and-see stance. Trading volumes have thinned, and sentiment has turned more defensive as traders monitor supply-demand balances and currency moves. In the absence of fresh supportive catalysts, analysts see scope for additional downside pressure across the Chinese vegetable oil complex in the near term.
Key Chinese Vegetable Oil and Meal Prices
| Commodity | Price | Change | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rapeseed oil | CNY 9,880/t | -4.00% | Steepest correction among major vegoils |
| Palm oil | CNY 8,870/t | -3.55% | Weaker than soybean complex |
| Soybean oil | CNY 8,424/t | -2.50% | Prices down, beans stable |
| Soybeans | CNY 4,468/t | Stable | Underlying market broadly steady |
| Soybean meal | CNY 3,164/t | -0.44% | Stocks seen trending toward ~700,000 t |
| Dalian soybean oil futures (Feb) | $1,182.50/t | -$2.93/t vs. prior session | Previously at $1,185.43/t |
Implications for Black Sea Sunflower Oil
The weaker Chinese vegetable oil complex sends neutral to bearish signals for Black Sea sunflower oil exporters. On one hand, lower domestic prices and subdued pre-holiday activity limit immediate import demand, despite the theoretical appeal of competitive seaborne supplies. On the other hand, the 4% decline in rapeseed oil—one of sunflower oil’s key competitors in food-use applications—could narrow the import premium that Black Sea origins can command, pressuring offer levels.
At the same time, falling soybean meal inventories toward roughly 700,000 tons by month-end suggest that crush margins could find some support once post-holiday demand normalizes. If crushers respond with higher throughput after the Spring Festival, this may lend indirect support to the broader vegetable oil balance sheet. Black Sea suppliers should closely track whether Chinese buyers return with new sunflower oil tenders following the holiday period, or whether continued domestic price weakness postpones any recovery in import demand.
Source: Market Data
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