- Bearish sugar complex: Raw sugar futures hit a five-year low at 13.86 cents/lb, down roughly 35% year-over-year on the back of record harvests and global oversupply.
- Mixed but resilient oilseeds: Sunflower oil FOB Black Sea held firm at $1,305/t while soybean meal strengthened across major origins, offsetting weakness in palm and rapeseed meal.
- Firm regional producer prices: EAEU agricultural producer prices rose 8.5% in 2025, led by Russia (+9.8%) and Kyrgyzstan (+15.5%), underscoring robust crop-sector economics despite feed cost pressure.
Sugar Market Update
Raw sugar futures fell to 13.86 cents per pound on February 11, 2026, matching October 2020 levels and marking a five-year low. Prices have dropped nearly 35% from around 21.4 cents/lb a year earlier, after peaking at 28 cents/lb in October 2024 before entering a prolonged downtrend.
The correction is driven by record sugarcane harvests and higher production in Brazil, Thailand, and India, alongside softening demand. Analysts expect prices to hover near 14 cents/lb through Q1 2026, with supply surpluses likely persisting into the 2026–2027 season. In Russia, sugar prices declined 7.4% year-over-year in 2025 but have edged up 0.37% since early February.
| Contract/Region | Price | Period/Change |
|---|---|---|
| Raw sugar futures | 13.86 cents/lb | Feb 11, 2026 (≈-35% YoY from 21.4 cents/lb) |
| Raw sugar peak | 28 cents/lb | October 2024 high |
| Russian sugar (2025) | N/A | -7.4% YoY; +0.37% since early February |
Black Sea Oilseed Complex
Black Sea sunflower oil values were stable, with sunflower oil FOB Black Sea at $1,305/t on February 11, maintaining the weekly high and signaling steady demand. Sunflower meal CIF France edged down slightly to $261.13/t.
Across the broader vegetable oil and meal complex, price action was mixed. Soybean oil FOB EU notched gains, while US CBOT soybean oil and palm oil FOB Malaysia weakened. Protein meals were generally firmer, led by soybean meal across key origins, whereas rapeseed meal softened to the week’s low.
| Commodity | Location/Basis | Price | Change / Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sunflower oil | FOB Black Sea | $1,305/t | Stable; weekly high |
| Sunflower meal | CIF France | $261.13/t | -$0.53/t |
| Soybean oil | FOB EU | $1,305.01/t | +$3.28/t; weekly high |
| Soybean oil | US CBOT | $1,257.74/t | -$4.85/t |
| Palm oil | FOB Malaysia | $1,064.65/t | Weekly low |
| Soybean meal | FOB Brazil | $339.99/t | +$2.39/t |
| Soybean meal | Dalian, China | $436.60/t | +$5.23/t; weekly high |
| Soybean meal | CIF EU | $385.07/t | +$5.97/t |
| Rapeseed meal | FOB EU | $273/t | -$6.50/t; weekly low |
| Soybeans | US CBOT | $412.99/t | +$0.55/t |
| Rapeseed | MATIF France | $578.04/t | -$2.06/t |
Regional Agricultural Producer Prices (EAEU)
Agricultural producer prices in the EAEU increased 8.5% in 2025 versus 2024. Crop producer prices rose 10.3%, outpacing the 7.5% increase in livestock producer prices. Russia led the larger members with 9.8% overall growth, while Kyrgyzstan recorded the fastest gains.
Russia’s crop prices climbed 12.1%, compared with 8% for livestock, underscoring stronger crop economics and supportive margins for arable farmers. Belarus posted 8.4% overall growth, Kyrgyzstan surged 15.5% (driven by 17.2% crop price growth), and Kazakhstan was essentially flat at -0.1%.
| Country / Region | Category | 2025 vs 2024 Price Change |
|---|---|---|
| EAEU (overall) | Agriculture | +8.5% |
| EAEU | Crop producers | +10.3% |
| EAEU | Livestock producers | +7.5% |
| Russia | Agriculture (overall) | +9.8% |
| Russia | Crops | +12.1% |
| Russia | Livestock | +8.0% |
| Belarus | Agriculture (overall) | +8.4% |
| Kyrgyzstan | Agriculture (overall) | +15.5% |
| Kyrgyzstan | Crops | +17.2% |
| Kazakhstan | Agriculture (overall) | -0.1% |
Market Implications
The steep sugar price decline underscores persistent global oversupply and may weigh on planting decisions and land allocation for sugar versus other crops through the 2026–2027 season. By contrast, stable Black Sea sunflower oil prices and firm soybean meal values point to resilient demand in the vegetable oil and protein complex, even as rapeseed meal and palm oil soften.
Within the EAEU, robust crop price inflation, particularly in Russia and Kyrgyzstan, supports farm income but also risks raising feed costs for livestock producers and downstream food sectors, potentially tightening margins outside the crop segment.
Source: Market Data
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