- Bullish: USDA cut global wheat stocks below expectations, while Russian export demand from Turkey and Iran remains strong despite logistics issues.
- Bearish: Black Sea port congestion, oversupplied global grain markets, and aggressive competition from Argentina cap upside for international wheat prices.
Global Wheat Market Overview
Global grain markets were mixed as the USDA’s February WASDE report cut worldwide wheat inventories to 277.51 million tonnes, a 0.74 million tonne reduction from January and below market expectations. The stock downgrade underlines tighter fundamentals, but price gains were moderated by strong competition from other origins and logistical constraints in the Black Sea.
International Wheat Futures
| Contract | Month | Exchange | Settlement Price | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Soft Red Winter Wheat | March 2026 | CBOT | $194.10/t | -0.10% |
| Hard Red Winter Wheat | March 2026 | Kansas City | $194.92/t | +1.75¢ |
| Hard Spring Wheat | March 2026 | Minneapolis | $208.79/t | -2.25¢ |
| Milling Wheat | March 2026 | MATIF | $225.81/t | +0.84% |
| Milling Wheat | March 2026 | MATIF (EUR) | €189.50/t | Unchanged |
U.S. wheat futures delivered a mixed session on February 10, 2026. CBOT soft red winter wheat eased slightly, while Kansas City hard red winter wheat firmed modestly. Minneapolis spring wheat weakened, reflecting ongoing concerns over export competitiveness. In Europe, MATIF milling wheat gained in dollar terms but remained flat in euros as currency moves offset price action.
USDA WASDE: Key Wheat Revisions
| Country/Region | Export Forecast 2025/26 | Change vs January |
|---|---|---|
| Argentina | 17.5 Mt | +1.5 Mt |
| Canada | 29.0 Mt | +1.0 Mt |
| Kazakhstan | 9.7 Mt | +0.2 Mt |
| European Union | 31.5 Mt | -1.0 Mt |
| Russia | 44.0 Mt | No change |
| Global Ending Stocks | 277.51 Mt | -0.74 Mt |
The USDA reduced global wheat ending stocks to 277.51 million tonnes, underscoring a tighter-than-anticipated balance sheet. Export capacity shifted toward Argentina and Canada, where larger harvests permitted upward revisions, while EU exports were trimmed by 1 million tonnes. Russia’s export outlook was held steady at 44 million tonnes against a crop of 89.5 million tonnes (excluding Crimea and new regions).
Black Sea Wheat and FOB Price Dynamics
| Origin / Grade | FOB Price | Weekly Change |
|---|---|---|
| Russia 12.5% protein | $232/t | +$1.0/t |
| Ukraine 11.5% protein | $228/t | +$0.5/t |
| Romania Wheat | $235/t | -$1.0/t |
| France Wheat | $232/t | -$4.0/t |
| Argentina Wheat | $209/t | -$2.0/t |
Black Sea wheat values were broadly firmer for Russian and Ukrainian origins, with Russian 12.5% protein FOB prices advancing to $232/t despite severe ice-related port disruptions. Competing suppliers in Romania, France, and Argentina saw modest price declines, highlighting aggressive offers from South America following Argentina’s record 27.8 million tonne wheat harvest.
Domestic Russian Port Prices
| Location / Shipment Type | Price Range | Weekly Change |
|---|---|---|
| Deep-water ports (truck) | RUB 15,500/t | -RUB 200/t |
| Deep-water ports (rail) | RUB 15,600–15,900/t | Lower |
| Low-water ports | RUB 14,200–14,400/t | Lower |
Domestic prices at Russian export hubs weakened as ice conditions slowed vessel loading and reduced near-term demand from exporters. Deep-water port values eased to RUB 15,500/t for truck deliveries and RUB 15,600–15,900/t for rail shipments, while low-water ports fell to RUB 14,200–14,400/t amid extremely sluggish shipping activity.
Russian Wheat Export Performance
| Period / Destination | Exports | Change vs Prior Year |
|---|---|---|
| Russia Wheat Exports (Jul 2025–Jan 2026) | 29.7 Mt | -8% |
| Turkey | 4.78 Mt | 2.3× (from 2.04 Mt) |
| Iran | 1.8 Mt | ~3× |
| Egypt | 6.06 Mt | Down from 6.4 Mt |
| February 2026 Forecast | 3.4 Mt | Up 125,000 t vs prior forecast; vs 2.07 Mt in Feb 2025 |
| February 2026 (first 10 days) | 1.1 Mt shipped | — |
Russian wheat exports reached 29.7 million tonnes between July 2025 and January 2026, 8% below last year. Turkey and Iran emerged as key growth markets, with Russia securing dominant market shares approaching 85–100% in Turkey, Iran, and Israel. Egypt, while remaining the largest buyer, trimmed volumes amid intensifying Black Sea competition. February 2026 exports are now projected at 3.4 million tonnes, well above the 2.07 million tonnes shipped in February 2025.
Corn and Soybean Market Update
| Commodity | Contract Month | Settlement Price | Daily Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corn (CBOT) | March 2026 | $168.80/t | Unchanged |
| Soybeans (CBOT) | March 2026 | $412.44/t | +1.06% |
Corn futures were steady as the USDA cut U.S. ending stocks by 100 million bushels to 2.117 billion bushels, reflecting stronger export demand. Global corn stocks slipped to 288.98 million tonnes. Soybean futures rose over 1% after the USDA increased global ending stocks to 125.51 million tonnes, driven by an upward revision to Brazil’s crop estimate to 180 million tonnes.
Weather and Crop Conditions in Russia
Russian winter wheat continues to face low temperatures between -25°C and -10°C, but a stable snow cover is providing adequate protection. A forecasted thaw and precipitation may compact snow and create ice crusts in the Central and Volga Federal Districts; however, these conditions are not expected to materially harm crops. Soil moisture remains high in the south and is likely to improve further. Official assessments indicate 97% of winter crops for the 2026 harvest are in normal condition, up from 87% a year earlier.
Market Sentiment and Outlook
Analysts see the near-term outlook for wheat as neutral to slightly bearish. While tighter global stocks and resilient demand for Russian wheat provide a supportive backdrop, concerns about global grain oversupply, logistical bottlenecks in the Black Sea, and the competitive impact of Argentina’s record harvest are restraining price gains. Market participants are watching Black Sea weather, port throughput, and the pace of Russian shipments against the February export quota for directional signals.
Source: Market Data
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