- Bearish: Ukrainian corn exports are down nearly 30% year-on-year, with July–January shipments at their lowest since 2017–2018, signaling weaker export performance.
- Supportive for prices: Reduced export pace and a cut in Sovecon’s full-season forecast point to tighter Ukrainian supply availability, limiting downside pressure on Black Sea FOB corn prices.
- Risk Factors: Late harvest, Black Sea storms, and potential further forecast downgrades increase uncertainty for Q1 2026 export flows.
Ukrainian Corn Export Performance
Ukraine’s corn exports reached 9.373 million tons as of February 9 in the 2025/26 marketing year, a decline of 29.4% from 13.27 million tons over the same period in 2024/25. The slowdown underscores significant logistical and supply-side constraints impacting Ukrainian grain flows.
Between July 2025 and January 2026, Ukraine shipped only 8.8 million tons of corn, down from 12.3 million tons a year earlier and well below the five-year average of 13.5 million tons. This marks the weakest performance for this seven-month window since the 2017–2018 season.
Total Grain and Legume Exports
Total exports of grain and leguminous crops from Ukraine stood at 19.512 million tons as of February 9, with 605,000 tons shipped in February alone. This is sharply lower than the 27.275 million tons exported by February 14 last year, when February shipments had already reached 1.585 million tons.
| Metric | Current Season | Previous Year | Five-Year Average / Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corn exports as of early February (million tons) | 9.373 (2025/26 MY, as of Feb 9) | 13.27 (2024/25 MY) | – |
| July–January corn shipments (million tons) | 8.8 (Jul 2025–Jan 2026) | 12.3 (prior year) | 13.5 (five-year average) |
| Total grain & legume exports by early February (million tons) | 19.512 (as of Feb 9) | 27.275 (as of Feb 14 prior year) | – |
| February grain & legume exports to date (million tons) | 0.605 | 1.585 | – |
Export Forecasts and Supply Outlook
Sovecon has lowered its full-season Ukrainian corn export forecast by 1 million tons to 25.8 million tons, citing delayed harvesting and Black Sea storms that have disrupted logistics. The reduction follows two contrasting recent seasons: 29.4 million tons exported in 2023/24 and only 21.9 million tons in 2024/25.
| Season | Ukrainian Corn Exports (million tons) | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| 2023/24 | 29.4 | Strong export performance |
| 2024/25 | 21.9 | Weaker season versus prior year |
| 2025/26 (current forecast) | 25.8 | Sovecon forecast, reduced by 1.0 million tons |
The combination of slower shipments and a downgraded export outlook implies tighter Ukrainian availability for Black Sea buyers through Q1 2026. While demand-side factors will remain critical, constrained flows from Ukraine are likely to curb aggressive downside moves in FOB corn prices, particularly if weather and logistical issues persist.
Regional Seed Corn Production in Russia
In parallel, Kabardino-Balkaria in Russia produced over 15,000 tons of seed corn in 2024, against domestic demand of roughly 3,500 tons. The surplus is being shipped to other Russian regions and export markets, and the republic aims to lift seed corn output to 18,000 tons by 2030.
Market Implications
Bias: Bearish on flows, supportive for prices. Ukrainian export volumes are underperforming both last year and the five-year average, pointing to weaker physical availability from a key Black Sea origin. However, tighter supply in the short term should temper downside pressure on prices. Traders should closely track harvest progress, port operations, and Black Sea weather, as further disruptions could prompt additional forecast cuts and repricing in forward markets.
Source: Market Data
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