- USDA raised Russia’s 2025/26 wheat export forecast to 44 million tonnes, reinforcing its role as the top global exporter.
- EU wheat export outlook was cut to 31.5 million tonnes, signaling tighter European export availability.
- Russia’s feed grain export forecast increased to 7.33 million tonnes, supporting strong Black Sea grain export flows.
- Russian intervention price cuts for wheat may encourage more competitive export pricing from the Black Sea region.
USDA and Russian Wheat Outlook
The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) increased its forecast for Russian wheat exports in the 2025/26 marketing year to 44 million tonnes, up from 43 million tonnes in the previous report. The projection for Russia’s wheat harvest remains unchanged at 89.5 million tonnes, indicating that the higher export figure comes from allocation rather than production growth.
Russian Agriculture Minister Oksana Lut confirmed that Russia maintained its leading role in global wheat exports through the end of 2025, with 41 million tonnes shipped to international markets. Overall Russian grain exports reached 50 million tonnes, and the country’s export potential for 2026 is estimated at 55 million tonnes, underscoring sustained export capacity from the Black Sea region.
Feed Grains and Corn
The USDA also raised its forecast for Russian feed grain exports to 7.33 million tonnes from 6.77 million tonnes, while keeping the feed grain harvest estimate steady at 39.05 million tonnes. Russian corn exports are projected at 3 million tonnes, unchanged from last year, with the corn harvest estimate maintained at 14.5 million tonnes. These stable to higher export projections suggest continued strong Russian participation in global feed grain trade.
EU Export Forecasts and Trade Flows
In contrast to Russia’s upward revisions, the USDA reduced its forecast for EU wheat exports to 31.5 million tonnes, down from 32.5 million tonnes in its January assessment. Despite this, European Commission data show that EU countries exported 13.43 million tonnes of wheat in the first seven months of the 2025/26 marketing year (through February 8), slightly above the 13.17 million tonnes shipped in the same period a year earlier.
EU barley exports have been particularly strong, reaching 5.95 million tonnes compared with 3.11 million tonnes in the corresponding period last year. This surge highlights shifting export dynamics within the EU grain complex, with barley flows compensating in part for tighter wheat export availability.
Russian Intervention Prices and Policy Signals
The Russian Ministry of Agriculture has proposed lowering maximum wheat prices for state procurement and commodity interventions by 220 rubles per tonne. At the same time, it recommends increasing rye intervention prices by 550 rubles per tonne and keeping barley prices unchanged. The reduction in wheat intervention prices points to comfortable domestic supply and could encourage increased sales into export channels if domestic market support is less attractive.
Market Implications
The combination of higher Russian export forecasts and lower EU export projections is neutral to moderately bullish for Black Sea wheat. Russia’s expanded export availability, together with ample domestic stocks implied by reduced intervention prices, suggests that Black Sea origins will remain highly competitive in global tenders. However, traders should watch whether lower Russian intervention prices translate into more aggressive FOB offers, which could cap upside on international wheat prices even as European exportable surpluses tighten.
| Region / Commodity | Metric | Previous Estimate | Current Estimate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Russia Wheat | Exports 2025/26 (million tonnes) | 43.0 | 44.0 |
| Russia Wheat | Harvest 2025/26 (million tonnes) | 89.5 | 89.5 |
| Russia Feed Grains | Exports 2025/26 (million tonnes) | 6.77 | 7.33 |
| Russia Feed Grains | Harvest 2025/26 (million tonnes) | 39.05 | 39.05 |
| Russia Corn | Exports (million tonnes) | 3.0 | 3.0 |
| Russia Corn | Harvest (million tonnes) | 14.5 | 14.5 |
| EU Wheat | Exports 2025/26 (million tonnes) | 32.5 | 31.5 |
| EU Wheat | Exports, Jul–Feb 8 (million tonnes) | 13.17 | 13.43 |
| EU Barley | Exports, Jul–Feb 8 (million tonnes) | 3.11 | 5.95 |
| Russia All Grains | Exports 2025 (million tonnes) | — | 50.0 |
| Russia All Grains | Export Potential 2026 (million tonnes) | — | 55.0 |
Source: Market Data
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