- Bullish (Soybean Oil): CBOT soybean oil futures rallied 2.2% to six‑month highs on expectations of stronger Indian demand after the India‑US agricultural trade framework and support from renewed US biodiesel tax incentives.
- Bearish (Soybean Meal): Chinese soybean meal prices fell nearly 2% amid temporarily high inventories and pressure from Brazil’s bumper soybean harvest, despite fresh US export sales to China.
- Neutral to Slightly Bearish for Black Sea: Potentially weaker demand for Black Sea sunflower oil if India shifts toward US soybean oil, while ample global soybean supplies cap upside for regional soybean products.
Market Update: Soybean Oil and Meal
Soybean oil futures on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) rose 2.2% on Monday, reaching their highest levels since July. The rally was driven by expectations of increased Indian buying after India and the United States agreed on a framework to reduce or remove import duties on American agricultural products. India is the world’s largest vegetable oil importer, purchasing about 16 million tons of palm, soybean, and sunflower oils annually, yet it currently sources only around 200,000 tons of soybean oil from the US (January–November period), leaving room for significant growth in US market share.
The move higher in soybean oil was reinforced by renewed tax incentives for US biodiesel producers, which favor the use of North American-origin feedstocks. However, analysts caution that Brazil’s bumper soybean crop and rapid harvesting pace could limit further upside in prices by adding substantial exportable supplies to the global market.
In China, oil mills maximized soybean processing in the week starting February 6, achieving record weekly crush volumes ahead of the Spring Festival holiday. This surge in processing lifted soybean meal inventories to 900,000 tons. With mills closing for the holiday period, stocks are expected to decline to around 700,000 tons by the end of the month as downstream consumption continues while upstream production pauses.
Despite the inventory build and subsequent expected drawdown, soybean meal prices have softened. China’s domestic benchmark soybean meal price stood at 3,164 yuan per ton on February 11, down 0.44% from 3,178 yuan at the start of the month, while Dalian soybean meal futures for February delivery eased to $431.37 per ton on February 10 from $432.82 per ton the previous day. Overall, soybean meal prices declined nearly 2%, even as the USDA reported new export sales of US soybeans to China, highlighting the weight of ample global supply.
Implications for Black Sea Oilseed and Meal Markets
The India‑US trade framework is mildly negative for competing vegetable oil origins, including Black Sea sunflower oil, as India could shift part of its import demand toward US-origin soybean oil. At the same time, increased US soybean and meal flows to China may tighten global protein meal availability at the margin, but current bearish pressure on soybean meal prices and Brazil’s large harvest temper any strong bullish spillover for Black Sea soybean products.
Black Sea sunflower processors should closely watch whether India’s buying patterns pivot away from traditional palm oil suppliers and toward US soybean oil, as such shifts could ripple across the broader oilseed complex. For now, the net impact appears neutral to slightly bearish for the region, with global supply strength offsetting support from trade re‑routing.
| Item | Location / Contract | Price | Change | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Soybean Oil Futures | CBOT | — | +2.2% | Highest level since July on India‑US trade framework and US biodiesel incentives |
| Soybean Oil Imports from US | India (Jan–Nov) | 200,000 tons | — | Out of ~16 million tons total annual veg oil imports |
| Soybean Meal Inventories (Current) | China | 900,000 tons | — | Record levels after intensive pre‑holiday processing |
| Soybean Meal Inventories (Projected) | China (Month‑end) | 700,000 tons | −200,000 tons | Expected drawdown during Spring Festival mill closures |
| Domestic Soybean Meal Benchmark | China | 3,164 yuan/ton | −0.44% vs. 3,178 yuan | Price as of February 11 |
| Dalian Soybean Meal Futures (Feb) | China | $431.37/ton | −$1.46 vs. $432.82 | Price on February 10 |
| Soybean Meal Price Move | Global/China-linked | — | ≈−2% | Despite USDA reporting new US export sales to China |
Source: Market Data
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