- FOB prices cut sharply: Ukraine’s minimum corn export price on a FOB basis for February dropped to USD 0.158/kg from USD 0.172/kg, an 8% month‑over‑month decline.
- CPT prices also lower: Minimum CPT basis price for corn was reduced to USD 0.162/kg from USD 0.167/kg, easing domestic export floor levels.
- Multi‑month lows: The new FOB corn price is the lowest since March 2025, signaling a significant softening in export pricing.
- Unusual price inversion: FOB corn now priced below CPT, suggesting logistical pressures or policy‑driven efforts to stimulate physical exports.
- Broader ag impact: Updated minimum export prices also cover key commodities such as wheat, barley, oilseeds, vegetable oils, and nuts.
Market Update
Ukraine’s Ministry of Economy, Environment, and Agriculture has implemented a notable reduction in minimum allowable export prices for corn under the export guarantee regime, according to order No. 2250 dated February 10, 2020. The adjustment reflects a more accommodative pricing stance aimed at aligning with weaker global market conditions.
For February, the minimum export price for corn on a CPT basis was set at USD 0.162/kg, down from USD 0.167/kg in December, a decrease of USD 0.005/kg. On a FOB basis, the minimum export price fell more sharply to USD 0.158/kg from USD 0.172/kg, representing a USD 0.014/kg reduction.
The February FOB basis price now sits below the CPT basis price and marks the lowest level for Ukrainian FOB corn since March 2025. The updated pricing framework extends beyond corn, affecting a basket of agricultural commodities including wheat, meslin, barley, rye, oats, soybeans, rapeseed, sunflower seeds, vegetable oils, oilcake, honey, and nuts.
| Basis | Period | Minimum Price (USD/kg) | Absolute Change (USD/kg) | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corn – CPT | December | 0.167 | – | – |
| Corn – CPT | February | 0.162 | -0.005 | -3.0% |
| Corn – FOB | December | 0.172 | – | – |
| Corn – FOB | February | 0.158 | -0.014 | -8.1% |
Analysis
Bearish for Ukrainian Corn Exports. The sharp reduction in Ukraine’s minimum export prices for corn underscores mounting pressure in the country’s corn market. An 8% month‑over‑month drop in FOB values indicates authorities are reacting to softer international demand or heightened competition from other Black Sea and global suppliers.
The inversion, with FOB prices now below CPT levels, is atypical and may point to logistical bottlenecks, changing freight dynamics, or a deliberate move to incentivize physical shipments out of Ukraine’s ports. If these lower price floors translate into improved price competitiveness, export volumes could pick up in the coming weeks, but margins for producers and traders are likely to remain compressed.
Given that the revised minimum prices also apply to a broader range of grains and oilseeds, the policy shift may influence regional price benchmarks across the Black Sea and further pressure competing origins in nearby import markets.
Source: Market Data
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