- Russian wheat exports up 18%: Shipments reached 2.8 million tons in January 2026, supporting a mildly bullish tone for Black Sea wheat.
- Broader grain exports up 6%: Total Russian grain and processed products exceeded 4.5 million tons, underscoring resilient external demand.
- Ukrainian prices firming: Port prices for milling and feed wheat rose USD 2–4 per ton amid stronger trader activity and export values.
- Diversified demand growth: Russian exports to Cameroon surged sevenfold, with multiple regional markets seeing 2–3x volume increases.
- Turkey nearly doubles imports: Turkish grain imports from Russia jumped 97%, making it a critical demand driver to watch.
- Ukraine faces supply-side constraints: Power-related production issues cap processor demand and may limit export capacity despite adequate grain availability.
Market Update: Russian Wheat Export Surge
Russian wheat exports showed strong growth in January 2026, reaching 2.8 million tons, an 18% year-on-year increase versus January 2025, based on Rosselkhoznadzor data from the Argus-Fito Federal State Information System. Overall exports of grain and processed grain products from Russia surpassed 4.5 million tons for the month, representing a 6% rise compared with the same period a year earlier.
Export flows expanded across a wide set of destinations. Shipments to Cameroon increased sevenfold, while Kazakhstan, Latvia, Kyrgyzstan, and Mongolia all recorded roughly threefold growth in Russian grain imports. Exports to Lebanon and Afghanistan doubled, and Turkey posted a 97% increase in imports from Russia, underscoring Turkey’s role as a pivotal outlet for Black Sea wheat.
Ukrainian Wheat Price Movement
The Ukrainian wheat market experienced modest price appreciation over the past week, supported by stronger trader activity and firmer export market indications. In seaborne ports, prices for milling and feed wheat both rose by USD 2–4 per ton, reflecting tighter margins and improving sentiment rather than a sharp shift in fundamentals.
| Market | Grade | Price Range | Currency / Basis | Weekly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ukraine Ports | Milling wheat | 209–218 | USD/ton CPT-port | +2 to +4 USD/ton |
| Ukraine Ports | Feed wheat | 202–212 | USD/ton CPT-port | +2 to +4 USD/ton |
| Ukraine Domestic | Class 2 wheat | 9,600–10,600 | UAH/ton CPT | Stable to slightly firmer |
| Ukraine Domestic | Feed wheat | 8,700–9,900 | UAH/ton CPT | Stable to slightly firmer |
| Russia Exports | All grains | >4.5 million | Tons (January 2026) | +6% Y/Y |
| Russia Exports | Wheat | 2.8 million | Tons (January 2026) | +18% Y/Y |
Despite the uptick in prices, Ukrainian processor demand remains relatively weak. Ongoing power outages are constraining production, limiting domestic offtake even as grain supplies stay adequate at the upper end of quoted price ranges. This dynamic has shifted more of the pricing impulse toward export channels rather than local industrial demand.
Regional Outlook and Trading Implications
The regional setup appears mildly bullish. Russia’s accelerating export pace, especially into a diversified range of destinations, indicates sustained appetite for Black Sea wheat. At the same time, Ukraine’s modest price firming alongside infrastructure and power-related constraints could cap its effective export capacity, indirectly supporting demand for Russian origin in the short term.
Traders should keep a close watch on Turkish buying patterns, as nearly doubled import volumes from Russia position Turkey as a key barometer of regional demand. Any shifts in Turkish tender activity, policy, or financing conditions could quickly influence Black Sea basis levels and export spreads between Russian and Ukrainian wheat.
Source: Market Data
Leave a Reply