Ukraine Corn Exports Hold Top Spot in 2025

• Corn holds 2nd place in Ukrainian agricultural export revenue for 2025, unchanged from 2024.
• EU market share declines after the reinstatement of quotas and import duties on Ukrainian farm goods.
• Soybeans move up to 4th place in export rankings, displacing rapeseed from the top five.
• Export diversification accelerates as Ukraine seeks alternative buyers beyond the EU.
• Domestic processing capacity expands, hinting at a gradual structural shift in Ukraine’s agri-trade.
• Market impact for corn: neutral to slightly bearish due to trade barriers and potential price discounts.

Market Update

The Ukrainian Club of Agrarian Business (UCAB) reports that corn remained one of Ukraine’s leading agricultural export commodities by revenue in 2025. According to Svetlana Litvin, head of UCAB’s analytical department, the top five export earners by value included sunflower oil, corn, wheat, and soybeans, with the first three positions unchanged from 2024.

The ranking saw one notable shift: soybeans rose from 5th to 4th place while maintaining export revenue at approximately the same level as the previous year. Rapeseed dropped out of the top five as its export revenues declined, signaling a change in crop competitiveness and demand dynamics.

EU countries continue to serve as the largest collective buyer of Ukrainian agricultural products, but their share of Ukraine’s export portfolio contracted in 2025. This reduction is directly linked to the reinstatement of quotas and import duties on Ukrainian agricultural goods, which has altered trade flows and margins for exporters.

UCAB analysts highlight early signs of structural transformation in Ukraine’s agricultural sector. The country is gradually expanding domestic processing capacity for both crop and livestock products, aiming to add more value within its borders. However, they emphasize that this transition will unfold over several years rather than delivering immediate shifts in export volumes.

Analysis

Market Impact: Neutral to Slightly Bearish for Corn

While corn’s ranking in export revenue remains stable, underlying fundamentals have softened. The reimposition of EU trade barriers exerts pricing pressure on Ukrainian corn, as suppliers are pushed to redirect volumes to alternative markets that may demand discounts or shorter-term contracts.

Export diversification is now a critical factor to watch. If Ukraine successfully places corn into non-EU destinations at acceptable price levels, the downside for FOB values may be limited. Failure to do so could trigger more aggressive price competition, weighing on margins for exporters and potentially affecting planting decisions in future seasons.

The gradual expansion of domestic processing capacity introduces a medium- to long-term supportive element for prices. As more corn and oilseeds are absorbed by domestic feed and industrial users, exportable surpluses could tighten. However, this effect is likely to be modest in the near term, leaving the short-run tone for corn neutral to slightly bearish.

Source: Market Data