- Bullish: Ukraine may expand sunflower seed acreage by 5–20% in 2026 on high prices and improved soil moisture, signaling potential production recovery.
- Bullish: Kabardino-Balkaria’s sunflower harvest rose 1.6x year-on-year, driven by both area expansion and higher yields, underscoring strong regional yield potential.
- Bearish: Ukraine’s 2025 sunflower harvest fell to about 10 million tons from 16 million tons, highlighting ongoing supply risk if weather remains unfavorable.
- Risk: Expanded sunflower plantings at the expense of crop rotation raise medium-term agronomic and yield sustainability concerns.
Market Update
Ukrainian agricultural consultancies now expect sunflower seed acreage to grow by 5–20% in the 2026 season, reversing earlier projections of a cutback. The main driver is improved soil moisture following heavy January snowfall across the country, after three largely snowless winters, particularly benefiting southern and eastern regions.
Seed companies report steady demand with no visible weakening in interest, as farmers respond to attractive price levels. However, the acreage increase is often coming at the expense of proper crop rotation, reflecting economic pressures and short-term optimization over long-term soil health.
A notable exception is agricultural holding Agrain, which plans a 38.8% reduction in sunflower area versus 2025. The company intends to cut sunflower plantings by 2.5 times in Chernihiv region and by more than half in Zhytomyr region to preserve a four-year rotation cycle.
For 2025, Ukraine’s sunflower seed harvest is estimated at around 10 million tons, sharply down from roughly 16 million tons previously. The drop reflects an extremely dry summer, with yields in some areas falling to just 0.5–1 t/ha. Domestic sunflower oil production is projected at about 4 million tons.
Kabardino-Balkaria Sunflower Production
In Russia’s Kabardino-Balkarian Republic, sunflower production posted substantial year-on-year growth. The region harvested 34,800 tons from 19,000 hectares, a 60% increase compared with last year. Output gains were supported by a 1,000-hectare expansion in planted area and a strong improvement in yields from 14.7 c/ha to 18.8 c/ha.
Key producing districts include Prokhladnensky, Baksansky, Maysky, and Zolsky, which together account for the bulk of the republic’s sunflower acreage and output.
Key Figures
| Region / Indicator | Season / Period | Area (ha) | Production (tons) | Yield | Change vs. Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ukraine – Sunflower Harvest | 2025 | n/a | ≈10,000,000 | 0.5–1 t/ha in driest zones | Down from ≈16,000,000 tons |
| Ukraine – Sunflower Acreage Outlook | 2026 (forecast) | +5–20% vs. 2025 | n/a | Weather-dependent | Acreage expansion expected |
| Ukraine – Sunflower Oil Output | 2025 (forecast) | n/a | ≈4,000,000 | n/a | Reflects reduced seed supply |
| Kabardino-Balkaria – Sunflower | Latest season | 19,000 | 34,800 | 18.8 c/ha | Production 1.6x year-on-year; yield up from 14.7 c/ha |
Market Analysis
Bullish. Improved moisture conditions and the anticipated 5–20% acreage increase in Ukraine signal a potential recovery in sunflower seed output for 2026, which could gradually ease supply tightness if weather remains favorable. Strong yield and output growth in Kabardino-Balkaria further highlight the production potential across the Black Sea basin.
However, the willingness of many Ukrainian farmers to sacrifice crop rotation for short-term gains underlines underlying financial stress and introduces medium-term agronomic risks that could cap yield potential. With current high prices driving expanded plantings, a return to more normal weather could eventually pressure values. Traders should closely track spring planting progress, moisture retention through the growing season, and any further adjustments in Ukrainian and Russian sunflower acreage.
Source: Market Data
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